亚洲—分析家认为阿富汗前路仍然困难重重

Analysis: Afghanistan Still Faces Difficult Road Ahead

分析家认为阿富汗前路仍然困难重重

 

In a new report, the nonpartisan Center for American Progress says Afghanistan has made great strides toward building a stable nation. But, as Robert Boorstin, the center's vice-president for National Security, pointed¹ out at a recent center-sponsored forum², the outcome of Afghanistan's struggle is still in doubt.

 

Robert Boorstin: It assesses the progress but it paints a picture, ultimately, I think of a country with an uncertain and fragile future that poses significant challenges not only for Afghans themselves but also for the United States and the international community.

 

Afghanistan has been the recipient⁴ of billions of dollars in international aid for reconstruction⁵, but the report says the economy is stagnant⁶ and heavily dependent on the drug trade, which is flourishing now as never before. According to U.N. statistics, Afghanistan provided 12 percent of the world's opium⁷ in 2001. That has mushroomed to 87 percent in 2005.

 

Barnett Rubin is considered one of the foremost American experts on Afghanistan. Mr. Rubin, of New York University's Center on International Cooperation, says although the rural poor are not seeing much tangible⁹ improvement in their lives, they have remained calm.

 

Barnett Rubin: A lot of what is keeping the people in the rural areas calm is hope, some political participation¹⁰, and narcotics¹² income, or opium poppy income.

 

Mr. Rubin says the drug trade accounts for one-third to 40 percent of the entire economy.

 

Under an accord reached in Bonn, Germany in December, 2001, a presidential election was held in which Hamid Karzai was chosen president. Legislative¹³ elections were just completed, but the overall outcome is unclear because they were conducted on a non-party basis.

 

Analysts¹⁴ say Mr. Karzai has had mixed success in building a central government. Distrust between ethnic¹⁵ groups has hampered¹⁷ national unity³, and government corruption¹⁸ remains¹⁹ rampant²⁰. In many areas outside Kabul, power still resides with regional warlords, some of whom are involved in the drug trade, and who may end up in the new parliament.

 

The United States continues to bear the brunt of operations against the Taleban remnants, while a multinational²¹ force known as ISAF deals with peacekeeping. The center's report points out that the Taleban, which harbored al-Qaida and Osama bin⁸ Laden²², has resurfaced with deadly effect. Mr. Boorstin says 25 per cent of the 199 U.S. combat deaths in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion came in July and August of this year.

 

Steve Coll, a staff writer for the New Yorker Magazine with long experience in Afghanistan, says Afghans tell him that government incompetence²³ is fuelling the insurgency²⁴.

 

Steve Coll: One thing that strikes me in particular is their belief that in the insurgency's ability to recruit across the board in all regions has been linked to rising frustration²⁵ with the government's performance and with the pattern of corruption.

 

The United States and coalition²⁶ partners are training Afghan police and security forces, which has helped ease some of the burden on coalition and ISAF peacekeepers. Nevertheless, Barnett Rubin notes, the high level of U.S. assistance cannot last forever, and that will present a serious dilemma²⁷ for Afghanistan.

 

Barnett Rubin: There is a real danger that in coming years, and I'm told by U.S. officials we can only count on this level of aid for maybe three more years, when that aid is withdrawn²⁸, Afghanistan will still be in poverty. It will have a clergy²⁹ that does not think the government is legitimate³⁰, government institutions that don't reach into the countryside, and it will have a large, well-armed army that it will not be able to pay, plus neighbors who think that the government has become too aligned³¹ with the United States, which is threatening them.

 

A follow-up conference to the 2001 Bonn Conference is scheduled to be held in London early next year. It will focus not only on Afghanistan's needs, but also on the international community's commitment to Afghanistan.

 

Gary Thomas, VOA news, Washington.

 

注释：

nonpartisan [7nQNpB:ti5zAn] adj. 无党派的

recipient [ri5sipiEnt] n. 接受者

stagnant [5stA^nEnt] adj. 不发展的；不景气的

opium [5EupjEm] n. 鸦片

mushroom [5mQFrum] vi. 迅速生长，迅速增加

tangible [5tAndVEbl] adj. 切实的

narcotic¹¹ [nB:5kCtik] n. 麻醉药，毒品

poppy [5pCpi] n. [植]罂粟

hamper¹⁶ [5hAmpE] v. 妨碍，牵制

rampant [5rAmpEnt] adj. 猖狂的；猖獗的

brunt [brQnt] n. 冲击

ISAF 驻阿富汗国际安全救援部队

dilemma [dai5lemE] n. 进退两难之境；困境

1 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

2 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

3 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

4 recipient   

a.接受的,感受性强的 n.接受者,感受者,容器

参考例句：

• Please check that you have a valid email certificate for each recipient. 请检查是否对每个接收者都有有效的电子邮件证书。
• Colombia is the biggest U . S aid recipient in Latin America. 哥伦比亚是美国在拉丁美洲最大的援助对象。

5 reconstruction   

n.重建，再现，复原

参考例句：

• The country faces a huge task of national reconstruction following the war.战后，该国面临着重建家园的艰巨任务。
• In the period of reconstruction,technique decides everything.在重建时期，技术决定一切。

6 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

7 opium   

n.鸦片；adj.鸦片的

参考例句：

• That man gave her a dose of opium.那男人给了她一剂鸦片。
• Opium is classed under the head of narcotic.鸦片是归入麻醉剂一类的东西。

8 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

9 tangible   

adj.有形的，可触摸的，确凿的，实际的

参考例句：

• The policy has not yet brought any tangible benefits.这项政策还没有带来任何实质性的好处。
• There is no tangible proof.没有确凿的证据。

10 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

11 narcotic   

n.麻醉药，镇静剂；adj.麻醉的，催眠的

参考例句：

• Opium is classed under the head of narcotic.鸦片是归入麻醉剂一类的东西。
• No medical worker is allowed to prescribe any narcotic drug for herself.医务人员不得为自己开处方使用麻醉药品。

12 narcotics   

n.麻醉药( narcotic的名词复数 )；毒品；毒

参考例句：

• The use of narcotics by teenagers is a problem in many countries. 青少年服用麻醉药在许多国家中都是一个问题。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Police shook down the club, looking for narcotics. 警方彻底搜查了这个俱乐部，寻找麻醉品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 legislative   

n.立法机构，立法权；adj.立法的，有立法权的

参考例句：

• Congress is the legislative branch of the U.S. government.国会是美国政府的立法部门。
• Today's hearing was just the first step in the legislative process.今天的听证会只是展开立法程序的第一步。

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

16 hamper   

vt.妨碍，束缚，限制；n.(有盖的)大篮子

参考例句：

• There are some apples in a picnic hamper.在野餐用的大篮子里有许多苹果。
• The emergence of such problems seriously hamper the development of enterprises.这些问题的出现严重阻碍了企业的发展。

17 hampered   

妨碍，束缚，限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The search was hampered by appalling weather conditions. 恶劣的天气妨碍了搜寻工作。
• So thought every harassed, hampered, respectable boy in St. Petersburg. 圣彼德堡镇的那些受折磨、受拘束的体面孩子们个个都是这么想的。

18 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

19 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

20 rampant   

adj.(植物)蔓生的；狂暴的，无约束的

参考例句：

• Sickness was rampant in the area.该地区疾病蔓延。
• You cannot allow children to rampant through the museum.你不能任由小孩子在博物馆里乱跑。

21 multinational   

adj.多国的，多种国籍的；n.多国籍公司，跨国公司

参考例句：

• The firm was taken over by a multinational consulting firm.这家公司被一个跨国咨询公司收购。
• He analyzed the relationship between multinational corporations and under-developed countries.他分析了跨国公司和不发达国家之间的关系。

22 laden   

adj.装满了的；充满了的；负了重担的；苦恼的

参考例句：

• He is laden with heavy responsibility.他肩负重任。
• Dragging the fully laden boat across the sand dunes was no mean feat.将满载货物的船拖过沙丘是一件了不起的事。

23 incompetence   

n.不胜任，不称职

参考例句：

• He was dismissed for incompetence. 他因不称职而被解雇。
• She felt she had been made a scapegoat for her boss's incompetence. 她觉得，本是老板无能，但她却成了替罪羊。

24 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

25 frustration   

n.挫折，失败，失效，落空

参考例句：

• He had to fight back tears of frustration.他不得不强忍住失意的泪水。
• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration.他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。

26 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

27 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

28 withdrawn   

vt.收回；使退出；vi.撤退，退出

参考例句：

• Our force has been withdrawn from the danger area.我们的军队已从危险地区撤出。
• All foreign troops should be withdrawn to their own countries.一切外国军队都应撤回本国去。

29 clergy   

n.[总称]牧师，神职人员

参考例句：

• I could heartily wish that more of our country clergy would follow this example.我衷心希望，我国有更多的牧师效法这个榜样。
• All the local clergy attended the ceremony.当地所有的牧师出席了仪式。

30 legitimate   

adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法

参考例句：

• Sickness is a legitimate reason for asking for leave.生病是请假的一个正当的理由。
• That's a perfectly legitimate fear.怀有这种恐惧完全在情理之中。

31 aligned   

adj.对齐的，均衡的

参考例句：

• Make sure the shelf is aligned with the top of the cupboard.务必使搁架与橱柜顶端对齐。