报告预测 2055年全球近半数工作可被机器人替代

 　　About half of the work carried out by people has the potential to be automated² by 2055 with adaptions to technology, a McKinsey Global Institute report predicted.

　　麦肯锡全球研究院近日发布的一份报告预测，到2055年，约半数人工工作可能通过采用技术而实现自动化。

　　That would amount to $11.9 trillion in wages lost, with China and India accounting³ for the largest potential employment impact.

　　这相当于减少11.9万亿美元的薪酬，中国和印度可能受到的就业影响最大。

　　The report, entitled "A future that works: automation, employment and productivity", analyzes⁴ the automation potential of the global economy, covering all sectors⁵ in more than 50 countries.

　　这份题为《未来产业：自动化、就业与生产力》的报告分析了全球经济的自动化潜力，覆盖50多国的各个领域。

　　At a time of lackluster productivity growth worldwide, automation technologies including robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning can give a much-needed boost to economic growth, according to Joe Ngai, managing director of McKinsey's Hong Kong office.

　　麦肯锡香港分公司总经理倪以理表示，在全球生产力增长乏力之际，机械人技术、人工智能、机器学习等自动化技术可为经济增长注入强心针。

　　He expects automation could raise productivity growth globally by 0.8 percent to 1.4 percent.

　　他预计自动化可将全球生产力提升0.8%至1.4%。

　　At a global level, technically⁶ automatable activities touch the equivalent of 1.1 billion employees and 11.9 trillion U.S. dollars in wages, according to the report.

　　报告指出，全球范围来看，可自动化的工作内容涉及相当于11亿名员工及11.9兆美元的薪酬。

　　The report also showed that activities most susceptible⁷ to automation are physical ones in highly structured and predictable environments, as well as data collection and processing, mostly reflected in manufacturing, accommodation and retail⁸ trade.

　　报告还显示，最易受到自动化影响的工作包括高度结构化及可预测环境中的体力劳动，以及数据收集和处理工作，常见于制造业、酒店业、零售业。

　　Ngai said the robots and computers can not only perform a range of routine physical work activities better and more cheaply than humans, but are also increasingly capable of accomplishing activities that include cognitive⁹ capabilities¹⁰ once considered too difficult to automate¹ successfully, such as sensing emotion or driving.

　　倪以理表示，机器人与电脑目前不仅能更有效率地从事各种体力劳动的工作，还能完成更多过去难以被自动化、需要认知能力的工作，例如认知判断、情绪反应及自动驾驶等。

　　If full or partial automation results in a significant reduction in employment or pressure on wages, some ideas such as negative income taxes, universal basic income, conditional¹¹ transfers and adapted social safety nets could be considered by the governments, Ngai said.

　　他表示，如果自动化导致就业机会大幅减少或薪资压力，政府可考虑补贴所得税、统一基本薪酬、有条件转业及调整社会安全网等措施。

1 automate   

v.自动化；使自动化

参考例句：

• Many banks have begun to automate.许多银行已开始采用自动化技术。
• To automate the control process of the lathes has become very easy today.使机床的控制过程自动化现已变得很容易了。

2 automated   

a.自动化的

参考例句：

• The entire manufacturing process has been automated. 整个生产过程已自动化。
• Automated Highway System (AHS) is recently regarded as one subsystem of Intelligent Transport System (ITS). 近年来自动公路系统(Automated Highway System,AHS)，作为智能运输系统的子系统之一越来越受到重视。

3 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

4 analyzes   

v.分析( analyze的第三人称单数 )；分解；解释；对…进行心理分析

参考例句：

• This approach analyzes management by studying experience usually through cases. 这个学派通常从实例获得经验，用以分析管理。 来自辞典例句
• The econometrician analyzes statistical data. 经济计量学者要分析统计材料。 来自辞典例句

5 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 technically   

adv.专门地，技术上地

参考例句：

• Technically it is the most advanced equipment ever.从技术上说，这是最先进的设备。
• The tomato is technically a fruit,although it is eaten as a vegetable.严格地说，西红柿是一种水果，尽管它是当作蔬菜吃的。

7 susceptible   

adj.过敏的，敏感的；易动感情的，易受感动的

参考例句：

• Children are more susceptible than adults.孩子比成人易受感动。
• We are all susceptible to advertising.我们都易受广告的影响。

8 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

9 cognitive   

adj.认知的，认识的，有感知的

参考例句：

• As children grow older,their cognitive processes become sharper.孩子们越长越大，他们的认知过程变得更为敏锐。
• The cognitive psychologist is like the tinker who wants to know how a clock works.认知心理学者倒很像一个需要通晓钟表如何运转的钟表修理匠。

10 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

11 conditional   

adj.条件的，带有条件的

参考例句：

• My agreement is conditional on your help.你肯帮助我才同意。
• There are two forms of most-favored-nation treatment:conditional and unconditional.最惠国待遇有两种形式:有条件的和无条件的。