中国的道路和工作场所似乎变得越来越安全

 　　GOING by the numbers, China’s notoriously hazardous¹ coal mines have become less perilous² in recent years. InJanuary the government said that 538 people had died in mining accidents in 2016, a mere³ 11% of the death toll⁴ a decade earlier. The total number of deathsper million tonnes of coal extracted was the lowest ever. For Chinese industry generally, safety data are improving. In 2002 140,000 people died inwork-related accidents; last year the toll was less than one-third as high. On roads there has been similar progress: 58,000 deaths in 2015, down from 107,000in 2004. Officials admit the statistics remain “grim”, but their efforts to improve safety are apparently⁵ paying off.

　　从数字来看，中国臭名昭著的危险煤矿近几年正变得不那么危险。2017年1月，中国政府称2016年共有538人死于矿难，仅仅相当于10年前死亡人数的11%。每采挖百万吨煤死亡人数创下历史新低。中国工业的安全数据也正在普遍改善。在2002年，逾14万人死于工伤事故；而去年，这一数字不足2002年的三分之一。在道路安全上也有相似的进步：2015年死亡5.8万人，比2004年的10.7万人有所下降。官方承认统计表明形势依然“严峻”，但他们改善安全的努力显然卓有成效。

　　Perhaps, but the numbers should be treated with caution. In a forthcoming paper, Raymond Fisman of Boston University and Yongxiang Wang of the University of Southern California analyse a government campaign launched in 2004 to reduce accidental deaths at work andon roads. It set annual ceilings for such fatalities⁶, nationally and locally.Officials would be punished if targets were exceeded.

　　或许改善是真的吧，但是这些数字应该被谨慎看待。在一篇即将发表的论文中，波士顿大学的雷蒙德·费思曼和南加州大学的王永祥（音）分析了中国政府2004年发起的旨在减少工伤及道路事故死亡人数的运动。它给国家和地方都设置了年度死亡上限。如果超出了这个限定值，相关官员就将受到惩罚。

　　中国的道路和工作场所似乎变得越来越安全.png

　　To see how the policy has worked,Mr Fisman and Mr Wang calculated the deaths-to-ceiling ratio (reported deaths divided by the mandated⁷ ceiling) for each province. Most provinces would be expected to be close to the target, with some slightly above and some slightly below.But almost all the ratios the scholars calculated were shy of 1 (see chart),with an abrupt⁸ fall-off in numbers once the ceiling is surpassed. This suggests fiddling⁹: the cliff-edge looks suspicious, and it is highly unlikely that the government set the ceilings generously high. Safety standards, the authorsconclude, have not improved as much as the numbers seem to show.

　　为了了解政策的实施效果，费思曼和王计算了每个省的死亡与限额之比（报告的死亡人数除以规定的最高限额）。大多数省份都接近限定值，有一些微微超出了一点，一些稍稍低一点。但两人计算得到的几乎所有比率都低于1（见图表），一旦超过上限，省份数量便骤降。这暗示着暗箱操作：限定值附近看起来很可疑，而且政府几乎不可能把限定值定得很宽松。作者总结道，安全标准并没有数据显示的那样提升得那么多。

1 hazardous   

adj.(有)危险的，冒险的；碰运气的

参考例句：

• These conditions are very hazardous for shipping.这些情况对航海非常不利。
• Everybody said that it was a hazardous investment.大家都说那是一次危险的投资。

2 perilous   

adj.危险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• The journey through the jungle was perilous.穿过丛林的旅行充满了危险。
• We have been carried in safety through a perilous crisis.历经一连串危机，我们如今已安然无恙。

3 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

4 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

5 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

6 fatalities   

n.恶性事故( fatality的名词复数 )；死亡；致命性；命运

参考例句：

• Several people were injured, but there were no fatalities. 有几个人受伤，但没有人死亡。
• The accident resulted in fatalities. 那宗意外道致多人死亡。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 mandated   

adj. 委托统治的

参考例句：

• Mandated desegregation of public schools. 命令解除公立学校中的种族隔离
• Britain was mandated to govern the former colony of German East Africa. 英国受权代管德国在东非的前殖民地。

8 abrupt   

adj.突然的，意外的；唐突的，鲁莽的

参考例句：

• The river takes an abrupt bend to the west.这河突然向西转弯。
• His abrupt reply hurt our feelings.他粗鲁的回答伤了我们的感情。

9 fiddling   

微小的

参考例句：

• He was fiddling with his keys while he talked to me. 和我谈话时他不停地摆弄钥匙。
• All you're going to see is a lot of fiddling around. 你今天要看到的只是大量的胡摆乱弄。 来自英汉文学 - 廊桥遗梦