2014年经济学人 长寿风险 我的钱或者你的人生

Longevity¹ risk

My money or your life

New financial instruments may help to make pension schemes safer

OVER the past 50 years, every forecast of how long people will live has fallen short. Despite fears that obesity² and global warming would reverse the trend, life expectancy³ in rich countries has grown steadily⁴, by about 2.5 years a decade, or 15 minutes every hour. That is good news for health-care providers, cruise companies and humanity. It is most unwelcome for those paying the bills to finance this extended lease on life.

Longevity risk, the chance that people will live longer than expected, is potentially very expensive. Never mind the dramatic impact of a cure for cancer: adding an extra year to the average lifespan increases the world's pension bill by 4%, or around 1 trillion, according to the IMF.

Firms that have sold annuities⁵ are the most obvious victims of living longer, as they keep on writing cheques to oldies they expected would have passed on by now. But the most severe risk lies with defined-benefit pension schemes, in which participants are promised an annual payment throughout their retirement⁶, however long it may last. Globally private defined-benefit schemes already have 23 trillion of liabilities—the amount they owe current and future pensioners⁷. Many are grossly underfunded as it is.

Such statistics are enough to send a pension trustee to an early grave. Yet there is an apparent cure, in the form of “longevity swaps”, which pension schemes can use to insure against the risk that their members will live longer than expected. In July, the pension scheme of BT, Britain's former telecoms monopoly, which is wrestling with a deficit⁸ of 7 billion, offloaded the longevity risk on over a quarter of its liabilities to Prudential Financial, an American insurer. BT will pay Prudential a monthly fee and it in turn will pay the extra pension costs if the shuffleboarders in question live longer than forecast.

Such arrangements have become increasingly common, with 2014 already setting a record for liabilities offloaded in Britain, the centre of the market. BT's deal, which covered pension debt worth 16 billion, was the biggest yet. Most of the 20-odd deals so far have been between big pension schemes and insurers such as Prudential and Swiss Re. The deals should help them hedge a risk they already have through their other businesses, which pay out if clients die unexpectedly early.

But the potential liabilities that need to be neutralised far exceed what insurers might want to take on. So new investors¹⁰ are being sought to take on risks associated with ever-older clients through “longevity” bonds, whereby outsiders take on the unwanted risks. Bondholders get paid a coupon¹¹, but start to lose money if life expectancy pushes beyond a pre-agreed rate.

In 2012 Aegon, a Dutch insurer, passed the longevity risk associated with 12 billion of pension liabilities to investors looking for an asset that does not move in tandem¹² with wider financial markets. Chris Madsen, a managing director there, hopes they will follow the trajectory¹³ of “catastrophe bonds”, which pay out if there are no hurricanes or earthquakes in a defined period. These have recently become popular with large investors looking to diversify¹⁴ away from stocks and bonds.

But whereas protection against natural catastrophes¹⁵ tends to be offered for a year or two, longevity bonds are only useful over longer periods—enough time needs to pass for past projections¹⁶ to have been proved wrong. This does not suit the average investor⁹, particularly in the absence of a liquid secondary market. So far, only a tiny fraction of the 23 trillion in liabilities in private defined-benefit plans have been protected. Whoever hits on the right formula will do a brisk trade.

1 longevity   

n.长命；长寿

参考例句：

• Good habits promote longevity.良好的习惯能增长寿命。
• Human longevity runs in families.人类的长寿具有家族遗传性。

2 obesity   

n.肥胖，肥大

参考例句：

• One effect of overeating may be obesity.吃得过多能导致肥胖。
• Sugar and fat can more easily lead to obesity than some other foods.糖和脂肪比其他食物更容易导致肥胖。

3 expectancy   

n.期望，预期，（根据概率统计求得）预期数额

参考例句：

• Japanese people have a very high life expectancy.日本人的平均寿命非常长。
• The atomosphere of tense expectancy sobered everyone.这种期望的紧张气氛使每个人变得严肃起来。

4 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

5 annuities   

n.养老金；年金( annuity的名词复数 )；（每年的）养老金；年金保险；年金保险投资

参考例句：

• Many companies in this country grant their old employees annuities after they retire. 这个国家的许多公司在老年雇员退休后发给他们养老年金。 来自辞典例句
• Can I interest you in one of our Easter Annuities or IRA accounts? 您对我们的复活节年金保险或者个人退休金帐户有兴趣吗？ 来自电影对白

6 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

7 pensioners   

n.领取退休、养老金或抚恤金的人( pensioner的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He intends to redistribute income from the middle class to poorer paid employees and pensioners. 他意图把中产阶级到低薪雇员和退休人员的收入做重新分配。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I am myself one of the pensioners upon the fund left by our noble benefactor. 我自己就是一个我们的高贵的施主遗留基金的养老金领取者。 来自辞典例句

8 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

9 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 coupon   

n.息票，配给票，附单

参考例句：

• The coupon can be used once only.此优惠券只限使用一次。
• I have a coupon for ten pence off a packet of soap.我有一张优惠券买一盒肥皂可以便宜十便士。

12 tandem   

n.同时发生；配合；adv.一个跟着一个地；纵排地；adj.（两匹马）前后纵列的

参考例句：

• Malcolm's contract will run in tandem with his existing one.马尔科姆的合同将与他手头的合同同时生效。
• He is working in tandem with officials of the Serious Fraud Office.他正配合欺诈重案办公室的官员工作。

13 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

14 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

15 catastrophes   

n.灾祸( catastrophe的名词复数 )；灾难；不幸事件；困难

参考例句：

• Two of history's worst natural catastrophes occurred in 1970. 1970年发生了历史上最严重两次自然灾害。 来自辞典例句
• The Swiss deposits contain evidence of such catastrophes. 瑞士的遗址里还有这种灾难的证据。 来自辞典例句

16 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。