2018年经济学人 自由交流:丰厚的回报(1)

 

Finance and Economics

财经

Free Exchange: Many happy returns

自由交流：丰厚回报

A new data trove¹ helps reshape how the economy is understood.

新的数据宝藏有助于重塑经济体被如何理解。

Data-gathering is the least sexy part of economics, which is saying something.

正在讲述某件事情的数据收集工作是经济学中最乏味的部分。

Yet it is also among the most important.

然而，它也是最重要的部分之一。

The discipline is rife² with elaborate theories built on assumptions that turned out to be false once someone took the time to pull together the relevant data.

这门学科充斥着各种精妙的理论，这些理论都是建立在一旦有人花点时间去收集相关数据就被证伪的假设之上。

Accordingly, one of the most valuable papers produced in 2017 is an epic³ example of data-retrieval: a piece of research that spells out the rates of return on important asset classes, for 16 advanced economies, from 1870 to 2015.

于是，在2017年所发表的最有价值的论文之一是一个开天辟地的数据收集范例：一篇讲清楚重要资产类别回报率的研究论文，涉及16个发达经济体，时间跨度从1870年到2015年。

It is fascinating work, a rich seam for other economists⁴ to mine, and a source of insight into some of today's great economic debates.

它是令人为之而着迷的工作，一座有待其他经济学家去开采的富矿，一处对当今各种伟大的经济争论有着深刻见解的源头。

Rates of return both influence and are influenced by the way firms and households expect the future to unfold.

回报率在影响公司和家庭预测未来展开的方式的同时也受其影响。

They therefore find their way into all sorts of economic models.

因而，它们在各种类型的经济模型中都有一席之地。

Yet data on asset returns are incomplete.

然而，有关资产回报的数据是不全面的。

The new research, published as an NBER working paper in December 2017, fills in quite a few gaps.

在2017年12月做为美国国民经济研究局的一份工作论文发表的这项新研究，填补了很大的空白。

It is the work of five economists: oscar Jorda of the San Francisco Fed, Katharina Knoll⁵ of the Bundesbank, Alan Taylor ofthe University of California, Davis, and Dmitry Kuvshinov and Moritz Schularick, both of the University of Bonn. (Messrs Jorda, Schularick and Taylor have spent years building a massive collection of historical macroeconomic and financial data. )

它是五位经济学家——旧金山联储的oscar Jorda、德国央行的Katharina Knoll、加州大学戴维斯分校的Alan Taylor以及波恩大学的Dmitry Kuvshinov 和 Moritz Schularick——的工作成果。（Jorda，Schularick 和 Taylor等三人在构建一个大型的历史宏观经济和金融数据集上花费了数年的时间）。

For each of the 16 economies, they craft long-term series showing annual real rates of return—taking into account both investment income, such as dividends⁶, and capital gains, all net of inflation—for government bonds and short-term bills, equities⁷ and housing.

他们为16个经济体中的每一个经济体都精心制作出一系列长期数据，展示了——将红利等投资收入以及资本所得和全部的净通胀都考虑在内的——政府债券、短期票据、股票和房产的年均实际回报率。

1 trove   

n.被发现的东西，收藏的东西

参考例句：

• He assembled a rich trove of Chinese porcelain.他收集了一批中国瓷器。
• The gallery is a treasure trove of medieval art.这个画廊是中世纪艺术的宝库。

2 rife   

adj.(指坏事情)充斥的，流行的，普遍的

参考例句：

• Disease is rife in the area.疾病在这一区很流行。
• Corruption was rife before the election.选举之前腐败盛行。

3 epic   

n.史诗，叙事诗；adj.史诗般的，壮丽的

参考例句：

• I gave up my epic and wrote this little tale instead.我放弃了写叙事诗，而写了这个小故事。
• They held a banquet of epic proportions.他们举行了盛大的宴会。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 knoll   

n.小山，小丘

参考例句：

• Silver had terrible hard work getting up the knoll.对于希尔弗来说，爬上那小山丘真不是件容易事。
• He crawled up a small knoll and surveyed the prospect.他慢腾腾地登上一个小丘，看了看周围的地形。

6 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

7 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。