U.S. and European sanctions against Russia are unprecedented, Zarate says

U.S. and European sanctions against Russia are unprecedented¹, Zarate says

Transcript²

NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks to Juan Zarate, former assistant secretary of the treasury³, on the impact of the latest sanctions on the Kremlin's war in Ukraine and the Russian economy.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

We now know that economic sanctions by the United States and many other nations were strong enough to collapse⁴ the value of Russia's ruble this week and also force the closure of the Moscow stock market for two days running. People have been lining⁵ up to get currency out of banks in Russia. Russia's central bank has been making moves to prop⁶ up the economy. But they are having to act without access to hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign currency reserves that Western nations possess and that Western nations froze. So how far-reaching are these sanctions, really? And could anything be too far? Juan Zarate is a former assistant secretary of the Treasury, now global co-managing partner at K2 Integrity. Welcome back to the program, sir.

JUAN ZARATE: Thank you, Steve. I appreciate it.

INSKEEP: I want to note that some of these sanctions have been tried on countries before, like Venezuela, for example, but not on a $2.7 trillion economy in a country that covers 11 time zones and has nuclear weapons. Do you feel, you know, the full effects of all this?

ZARATE: I don't think anyone does, Steve. This is unprecedented both in terms of scale, pace and the effect on a major global economy. Certainly, we went through this debate in 2014, when Russia invaded and took over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. And there were plenty of discussions about how far to take the sanctions, how aggressive to be, in particular with unplugging Russian financial institutions from the international financial order. But what you've seen over the course of the last week is really unprecedented and in particular from Europe, where you have the unplugging of Russian institutions, the targeting of oligarchs and leadership - and even the private sector⁷ now, Steve, unplugging from their interactions, leading to what is, in essence, the financial and commercial isolation⁸ of Russia and very much putting at risk the Russian economy. Where this goes next, we are in uncharted territory in the midst of a conflict.

INSKEEP: When you were in the government and considering sanctions on this or that country, I'm sure you thought through, what are the consequences? And what is the end state that we want? What do we want that country to look like when the sanctions take full effect? Do you feel you have a picture of what the current administration visualizes⁹ as to what they want to be happening in Russia in one week or one month, or six months?

ZARATE: I think, right now, Steve, this is less about what happens within Russia, although, that's playing itself out with the collapse of the value of the ruble and Russian institutions at risk. I think the challenge here is that the weight of the crisis and the conflict has been put on the shoulder of sanctions. And so the U.S., Europe, Asian countries are using sanctions as the tool of choice - the only tool, in many ways - to confront the atrocities¹⁰ of the invasion that Russia has undertaken. And so right now, the sanctions are intended to punish. They're intended to deny access to capital and goods that Russia needs. Hopefully, they change behavior and deter¹¹.

Although, there are limits to what sanctions can do, as we know, and especially when you're talking about a leader like Putin with national identity driving his agenda or even regime survival. There are limits to what sanctions can do. But I don't think this is being driven by a desire to have the Russian people rise up against Putin. Although, maybe some people are hoping for that. This is a use of sanctions to deal with an aggression¹² of unprecedented scale and scope from Russia when we aren't going to put troops on the ground or fight ourselves.

INSKEEP: So you don't think the goal is regime change here, which is something that people talk about on social media. You think the goal is to do something, and this is the thing that is available to do. Do you think, though, that President Putin is likely to feel any pain?

ZARATE: Well, I don't think he personally will feel any pain. Certainly, there's an attempt to target him. He's been now listed as part of the sanctions. There's an effort, I think, a genuine effort, now to go after his assets and those of his cronies and oligarchs around him. You've seen in the private sector a tracking of yachts and private planes. And I think the U.S. government has set up a task force to look for the assets of these kleptocrats. So that's very real. That will hurt him eventually. But he is immune from the effects of this. He is going to continue, obviously, to march forward in Ukraine. And the effects will be felt by the Russian economy, no doubt. And for anybody doubting the effects of sanctions, you just have to look at what's happening already to the Russian economy and the lack of faith in Russian institutions. And I think Putin himself probably calculated that there would be some reaction, perhaps didn't calculate for the massive and quick reaction he's seeing now.

INSKEEP: Let me ask about a couple of possible side effects, one of them being on the United States. We learned, if we did not already know, that the Russian central bank, when they pile up foreign currency reserves, that money is effectively sitting in the United States and available for the United States to freeze. The U.S. has done that. And London has done that. And other countries have done that. If I'm - I don't know - a foreign despot somewhere, thinking of doing something that the world won't like, am I just going to be less likely now to rely on the United States as a place to park my money?

ZARATE: This has always been a potential externality or a side effect of the use of sanctions aggressively, especially when the U.S. uses its dollar dominance, the attractiveness of its capital markets in furtherance of national security. And so I think it's always a possibility that you're going to have despots, autocrats¹³ or rogue¹⁴ regimes evading¹⁵ U.S. sanctions, evading the U.S. economy. But what's important here is you have such a widespread, international response. This isn't just the U.S. unilaterally. You have European institutions and even the private sector on its own - whether it's BP and Shell or Maersk, or the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund - all deciding they don't want to do business with Russia. So this is, I think, less an issue in this case now, given the nature of the sanctions response.

INSKEEP: The sheer scale of it. One other question, though, Mr. Zarate. We're dealing¹⁶ here with a nuclear-armed nation, thousands of nuclear weapons, with a leader who's turned out to be less predictable than people thought just a week or two ago. And now the U.S. is economically backing Russia into a corner. Is there a scenario¹⁷ where this goes too far?

ZARATE: Perhaps. And Putin has warned this. In one of his statement, he said, if we are part of the system, we will, you know, feel a part of the system. And that was a veiled warning, I think, that if they are unplugged or feel too isolated¹⁸, they may feel more willing to put that system at risk, whether it's the financial system, through cyberwarfare or in other measures that they can take. So that is a danger. And Russia can bite back.

INSKEEP: That used to be the argument for trading with authoritarian¹⁹ nations, was to get them inside the tent in some way. Mr. Zarate, thanks so much.

ZARATE: Thank you, Steve.

INSKEEP: He is a former assistant secretary of the Treasury - Juan Zarate.

(SOUNDBITE OF SLUSHII'S "SAPIENT DREAM")

1 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。

6 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

7 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

8 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

9 visualizes   

在脑中使（某人或某物）形象化，设想，想像( visualize的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He mentally visualizes a complex form all round itself. 他在脑海里从形体的各个方面来模拟复杂的形体。
• He is much older, but do you think he visualizes scenarios, exchanges? 他年纪大很多你对他可有想入非非？

10 atrocities   

n.邪恶，暴行( atrocity的名词复数 )；滔天大罪

参考例句：

• They were guilty of the most barbarous and inhuman atrocities. 他们犯有最野蛮、最灭绝人性的残暴罪行。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The enemy's atrocities made one boil with anger. 敌人的暴行令人发指。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

12 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

13 autocrats   

n.独裁统治者( autocrat的名词复数 )；独断专行的人

参考例句：

• Still, the widespread pessimism doesn't explain the relatively high scores enjoyed by the autocrats. 不过，普遍的悲观情绪并没有解释为何独裁者得到相对较高的分数。 来自互联网

14 rogue   

n.流氓；v.游手好闲

参考例句：

• The little rogue had his grandpa's glasses on.这淘气鬼带上了他祖父的眼镜。
• They defined him as a rogue.他们确定他为骗子。

15 evading   

逃避( evade的现在分词 )； 避开； 回避； 想不出

参考例句：

• Segmentation of a project is one means of evading NEPA. 把某一工程进行分割，是回避《国家环境政策法》的一种手段。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Too many companies, she says, are evading the issue. 她说太多公司都在回避这个问题。

16 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

17 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

18 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

19 authoritarian   

n./adj.专制(的)，专制主义者，独裁主义者

参考例句：

• Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies.各国外交官怀疑他有着独裁主义倾向。
• The authoritarian policy wasn't proved to be a success.独裁主义的政策证明并不成功。