Did Putin miscalculate the military challenge Russia would face in Ukraine?

 

Did Putin miscalculate the military challenge Russia would face in Ukraine?

Transcript¹

NPR's Rachel Martin talks to Russia historian Sergey Radchenko about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin under estimated the challenges for Russia when it invaded Ukraine.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Let's bring in Sergey Radchenko. He has written extensively on nuclear history and on Russia's foreign and security policies. He's also a professor of Russian history at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies based in Europe. He joins us now from London. Thank you so much.

SERGEY RADCHENKO: Good morning to you.

MARTIN: A Russian attack on this nuclear plant in Ukraine has European leaders on alert, understandably. I wonder if you could start off by just telling us what it feels like to be in Europe right now.

RADCHENKO: Well, you know, obviously, everybody in Europe is nervous. We are not sure where this conflict is going. There's potential for escalation². I find myself in a particularly tricky³ position because I am a Russian academic who works in the West. And I have ties - I'm partially⁴ of Ukrainian heritage, so I have ties to both sides in this conflict. And in personal terms, it's absolutely traumatic. You know, it is like waking up in the morning and realizing that somebody you know closely has died or that you have helped kill them. So that is the kind of feeling that I've go - I've been going with for days. And, of course, you know, I as a historian and a scholar, I am also aware of just how badly this can all turn out. I'm a Cold War historian. We've seen dangerous moments during the Cold War, and there's every potential here for escalation. And we must do - we must keep very calm and just make sure that we take the right ladder out of this, you know, the right door to de-escalate.

MARTIN: Right. Let's focus in on this nuclear attack for the moment. I mean, Russia is already facing an onslaught of sanctions. This particular attack is likely going to generate an even stronger response from the U.S. and the EU. Based on what you know of Putin, is he willing to absorb any risk right now in order to take Ukraine?

RADCHENKO: So this is just another development. Of course, there's an - it's an outrageous⁵ development - you know, firefight at a nuclear power plant. How much worse can it get? But we have to remember that Putin has started an atrocious war against Ukraine. He - I think he expected to get off lightly. He did not expect the kind of consolidated⁶ response that we have seen in the West in terms of sanctions targeting Russia. And Russian economy is already in the meltdown. Nor did he expect such a response from the Ukrainian people. He did not expect this kind of resistance.

But, of course, now that he is in this situation, it seems that he's determined⁷ to push the bitter end and to overwhelm Ukraine. And we have to remember that he has the capacity to do that. I mean, Russia has a massive military machine that, you know, dwarfs⁸ anything that Ukraine can possibly put up against it. So I think we're in the early - still in the early days of this very horrendous⁹, unfortunate war. And I'm worried that Putin is prepared to go much further and unleash¹⁰ even the worst bloodbath in Ukraine than what we have seen already.

MARTIN: What do you make, though, of these reports that Russian troops are running out of gas, that they don't have food? This big convoy¹¹ on its way to Kyiv allegedly has stalled. It doesn't seem very organized in some respects.

RADCHENKO: Yeah, I mean, obviously, we've - you know, any military operation like this is bound to run into some logistical problems. And we have seen the Russians facing problems, you know, even abandoning their vehicles, facing resistance. You know, the situation, though, remains¹² - the Russians are edging further in Ukraine. They are making gains. They are taking over cities, encircling cities. They just took over a nuclear plant, as we have just heard. So on the whole, I think it's too early to say how this war will turn out in the coming days and weeks. What I'm worried about is that we're just in the early stages of it.

MARTIN: There have been reports of Russian soldiers saying that they expected to be welcomed with open arms by Ukrainians who are desperate for help. Do many in Russia believe that?

RADCHENKO: There is a large section of the population that unfortunately believes that. That unfortunately buys into this narrative¹³. And, of course, to make things easier for them and makes it - making it easier to believe this narrative is the fact that the Russians have been - the Russian government has been clamping down on foreign media and foreign sources of information. So they have just shut down BBC Russian service, Deutsche Welle and some other foreign media, which basically leaves many Russians with just internal sources of information, internal narrative that presents this as some kind of a war of liberation against Nazis¹⁴.

And, you know, I'm afraid to say - and I'm deeply saddened to say that as a Russian - that so many people in Russia actually believe this nonsense and buy into it. Now, I don't say that everybody does. And I will say that liberal intelligentsia, so-called liberal intelligentsia in Moscow and St. Petersburg are, by and large - abhor¹⁵ - they're aghast. They're horrified¹⁶ by what's going on. But, you know, now that the Russian government has unleashed¹⁷ repressions¹⁸ and are promising¹⁹ long prison terms for speaking up against this war, I wonder how many of those - of my liberal friends in Moscow and St. Petersburg will quietly say to themselves, you know, maybe it's time to be quiet? I don't know. It's a scary situation for many of them.

MARTIN: The Russian Defense²⁰ Ministry²¹ made its first acknowledgment of Russian troops that have been killed in Ukraine. It said almost 500. Ukraine claims there have been over 5,000 - so big discrepancy²² there. Does the fact that Russians are dying in Ukraine - does that change public opinion in Russia? And then does that have an effect on Putin?

RADCHENKO: It's hard to say what has an effect on Putin at this stage. Putin is sitting in his bunker, surrounded by very few trusted lieutenants²³ who he may not necessarily even listen to. Putin is somebody who just listens to himself. And he's clearly not an economist²⁴ because the consequences of this misadventure in Ukraine have been absolutely dire²⁵ for the Russian economy. Russian economy has been thrown back years and perhaps decades with the sanctions that are not likely to go away. Now, there is a body count. There is, as you say, a major discrepancy, as always, in times of war. Different sides present different numbers. We have not yet seen the - we have not yet seen this translate into some sort of popular movement against Putin. And in general, I would say that the Russians - you know, they are kind of passive when it comes to this thing.

MARTIN: Just in a couple seconds, a lot of Russia watchers have been saying Putin is unhinged. He's different now. Do you agree with that? Or is this the same Putin?

RADCHENKO: You know, in a sense, it is the same Putin. And I think he's still a rational actor. We just need to understand his calculation of costs and benefits.

MARTIN: We so appreciate your time. Sergey Radchenko is a professor teaching Russian history and foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University. Thank you for your time and context this morning.

RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

3 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

4 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。

5 outrageous   

adj.无理的，令人不能容忍的

参考例句：

• Her outrageous behaviour at the party offended everyone.她在聚会上的无礼行为触怒了每一个人。
• Charges for local telephone calls are particularly outrageous.本地电话资费贵得出奇。

6 consolidated   

a.联合的

参考例句：

• With this new movie he has consolidated his position as the country's leading director. 他新执导的影片巩固了他作为全国最佳导演的地位。
• Those two banks have consolidated and formed a single large bank. 那两家银行已合并成一家大银行。

7 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

8 dwarfs   

n.侏儒，矮子（dwarf的复数形式）vt.（使）显得矮小（dwarf的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• Shakespeare dwarfs other dramatists. 莎士比亚使其他剧作家相形见绌。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The new building dwarfs all the other buildings in the town. 新大楼使城里所有其他建筑物都显得矮小了。 来自辞典例句

9 horrendous   

adj.可怕的，令人惊惧的

参考例句：

• He described it as the most horrendous experience of his life.他形容这是自己一生中最可怕的经历。
• The mining industry in China has a horrendous safety record.中国的煤矿工业具有令人不安的安全记录。

10 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

11 convoy   

vt.护送，护卫，护航；n.护送；护送队

参考例句：

• The convoy was snowed up on the main road.护送队被大雪困在干路上了。
• Warships will accompany the convoy across the Atlantic.战舰将护送该船队过大西洋。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

14 Nazis   

n.（德国的）纳粹党员( Nazi的名词复数 )；纳粹主义

参考例句：

• The Nazis worked them over with gun butts. 纳粹分子用枪托毒打他们。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The Nazis were responsible for the mass murder of Jews during World War Ⅱ. 纳粹必须为第二次世界大战中对犹太人的大屠杀负责。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 abhor   

v.憎恶；痛恨

参考例句：

• They abhor all forms of racial discrimination.他们憎恶任何形式的种族歧视。
• They abhor all the nations who have different ideology and regime.他们仇视所有意识形态和制度与他们不同的国家。

16 horrified   

a.(表现出)恐惧的

参考例句：

• The whole country was horrified by the killings. 全国都对这些凶杀案感到大为震惊。
• We were horrified at the conditions prevailing in local prisons. 地方监狱的普遍状况让我们震惊。

17 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 repressions   

n.压抑( repression的名词复数 )；约束；抑制；镇压

参考例句：

19 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

20 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

21 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

22 discrepancy   

n.不同；不符；差异；矛盾

参考例句：

• The discrepancy in their ages seemed not to matter.他们之间年龄的差异似乎没有多大关系。
• There was a discrepancy in the two reports of the accident.关于那次事故的两则报道有不一致之处。

23 lieutenants   

n.陆军中尉( lieutenant的名词复数 )；副职官员；空军；仅低于…官阶的官员

参考例句：

• In the army, lieutenants are subordinate to captains. 在陆军中，中尉是上尉的下级。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Lieutenants now cap at 1.5 from 1. Recon at 1. 中尉现在由1人口增加的1.5人口。侦查小组成员为1人口。 来自互联网

24 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

25 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。