The state of the war: a month after Russia tried to claim an easy victory

The state of the war: a month after Russia tried to claim an easy victory

　　Transcript¹

　　It's been one month since Russia invaded Ukraine. With refugees fleeing, we examine how Ukraine has changed — plus the efforts of the Ukrainian military and civilian² resistance.

　　STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

　　One month into the war in Ukraine, we have an assessment³. The war looks very different than people expected. Russian invaders⁴ were expected to seize the capital quickly. Instead, Russia's military reputation is shattered, though Russian artillery⁵ and missiles have destroyed many buildings and many lives. That is the situation as President Biden meets NATO leaders in Europe this week. Our assessment of the war comes from there and from here. NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman covers the U.S. military. NPR's Tim Mak has covered the war since he arrived in Kyiv last month on one of the last commercial flights into the country.

　　Tim, let's start with you in Ukraine. How has the country changed in this past month?

　　TIM MAK, BYLINE⁶: The first thing that comes to mind is what has happened with civilians⁷. Now, the U.N. has said that 3.6 million people have left Ukraine to escape the war, and millions more have had to leave their homes. But something that happens when you have a number that large is that it can obscure the reality on the ground, that for every single one of those people, there were dreams and aspirations⁸ that they had for the place they lived, and these are aspirations that are now eliminated or at the very least postponed⁹. For many of them, it's been stressful trips on crowded train cars with crying toddlers and hours of waiting in the dark, wondering what's going to happen next. And over the past month, I've seen blank stares and anxiety of fleeing women and children. I've seen the care that many Ukrainians have for their pets, the dogs and cats and even rabbits that residents of Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine have taken with them as they travel across Ukraine to escape to safety. And I've seen the hope, despite the war, and the happiness that comes when loved ones are still together.

　　INSKEEP: Tim, stay with us. I'm going to bring Tom Bowman into the conversation. And, Tom, didn't Pentagon officials expect a different war than the one that has evolved?

　　TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: There was an expectation - get this, Steve - that the Russians could take Kyiv in as little as two days and maybe take the entire country in about two weeks. So what's surprising is just how bad the Russians are across the board. They're having problems with coordinating¹⁰ their aircraft, armor and troops into one powerful fist. They lack leadership, supplies even - both food and fuel. They've not gained any of their objectives after a month. They've not taken Kyiv. And now small Ukrainian forces are actually pushing back the Russians in the suburbs northwest of Kyiv. And for at least a week or not - more, the Russians have been stuck eight miles outside of Kyiv to the northwest, 18 miles to the east. And they've not moved, again, in quite some time.

　　The other big surprise is how hard the Ukrainians are fighting in these small units and making particularly a very good use of anti-tank weapons, like around Kyiv, and also using anti-aircraft weapons to shoot down Russian helicopters and jets. Steve, the assumption was Ukrainians would mount a stiff counterinsurgency after a quick Russian victory. Instead, we're seeing the Ukrainians fight like terriers right off the bat and denying the Russians pretty much everything.

　　INSKEEP: Tim, what are you hearing from the troops who are fighting that battle on the Ukrainian side?

　　MAK: I think what I've been hearing about is a lot of pride in outperforming the world's expectations. I'm told over and over again by Ukrainians that they thought the prospect¹¹ of an all-out war was overhyped. They never thought it would actually happen. And so in the first days of the war, soldiers all across the country were hastily putting together fighting positions and checkpoints. They had a lot of nervous men with guns lining¹² the road without much training and poor trigger discipline.

　　BOWMAN: You know, I was talking to a Ukrainian general who raised a very good point. He said, you people - meaning the U.S. and NATO - have been fighting a counterinsurgency for 20 years. We've actually been fighting a conventional war against the Russians in the Donbas area. He said every general has experience fighting the Russians with tanks and armor and aircraft and artillery. So I think that's why you're seeing the Ukrainians do so well. And I think that's what the Pentagon failed to see, was these were hardened troops fighting the Russians for many years in the eastern part of their country.

　　INSKEEP: Tim Mak, have the Ukrainians then been able to take that skill and bring it up to scale, become more and more skilled as they've spent the past month fighting the Russians on a large scale?

　　MAK: I think that what's really happened is that there have been these success stories that Tom's been talking about that have really proliferated¹³, and so you do see an evolution of the attitude of regular troops, that these checkpoints and the soldiers that are at them, they become a little bit more relaxed, especially away from the front lines, you know, whereas in the first days of the war, I - myself, you know, I'm a foreign journalist - I would have been regularly confronted, asked for my passport. And that just hasn't happened nearly as much over the past week. And, you know, in some of these military checkpoints, I'm seeing smiles and jokes. We even saw an impromptu¹⁴ barbecue at a checkpoint outside Odesa earlier this week.

　　INSKEEP: Tom Bowman, I want to ask about the next couple of weeks. It's speculated that perhaps Russian forces are running low on ammunition¹⁵, running low on missiles, running low on food, running low on supplies.

　　BOWMAN: Right. And some military analysts¹⁶ are saying this could be over for the Russians in 10 days or so if they don't get resupplies or get more troops in. People I talk with say, listen; don't count the Russians out just yet. They still have a lot of combat power, especially missiles and artillery that you're seeing being used not only in Kyiv but also this scorched-earth policy, especially in the south around Mariupol. Now, the Russians could possibly break out and move closer to Kyiv and then start hammering the city even more. They're trying to box in Ukrainian forces in the east, around the Donbas area. And that's where roughly half the Ukrainian army is located. But again, you know, military intelligence officials say the Russians are expected to bring in Russian replacement¹⁷ troops from either the Russian mainland or outside the country from maybe places like Georgia or maybe Syria. But again, the Russians are not doing well at all. And they may, in the end, just go to this scorched-earth policy, just hammer and hammer the cities into, basically, oblivion.

　　INSKEEP: Tim Mak, what's the human cost of that?

　　MAK: Right now we're hearing a lot of the stories of the war from the eyes of civilians who are fleeing west into safer areas. And earlier this week, I spoke¹⁸ to a man named Arytom (ph). He had been in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, a few years ago as a sniper. He talked about holding an 18-year-old friend as he died. He recounted his friend was asking if he was going to be OK. I think a lot more of these stories will start to filter out to the public soon. From a human perspective, the situation is improving for Ukrainians logistically. As we traveled west, I saw truck after truck after truck carrying fuel and food eastwards¹⁹ and in Kyiv and east in the country. And I think we'll see some continuing resilience of Ukrainian citizens who are living under constant threat of bombardment everywhere across the country.

　　INSKEEP: NPR's Tim Mak is finishing a month of reporting in Ukraine. Tim, thanks for all your work. Really appreciate it.

　　MAK: Thank you.

　　INSKEEP: And we were also joined by NPR's Tom Bowman, who has covered the past month of war from the Pentagon. Tom, thanks to you.

　　BOWMAN: You're welcome, Steve.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

3 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

4 invaders   

入侵者，侵略者，侵入物( invader的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They prepared to repel the invaders. 他们准备赶走侵略军。
• The family has traced its ancestry to the Norman invaders. 这个家族将自己的世系追溯到诺曼征服者。

5 artillery   

n.(军)火炮，大炮；炮兵(部队)

参考例句：

• This is a heavy artillery piece.这是一门重炮。
• The artillery has more firepower than the infantry.炮兵火力比步兵大。

6 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

7 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

8 aspirations   

强烈的愿望( aspiration的名词复数 )； 志向； 发送气音； 发 h 音

参考例句：

• I didn't realize you had political aspirations. 我没有意识到你有政治上的抱负。
• The new treaty embodies the aspirations of most nonaligned countries. 新条约体现了大多数不结盟国家的愿望。

9 postponed   

vt.& vi.延期，缓办，（使）延迟vt.把…放在次要地位；[语]把…放在后面（或句尾）vi.（疟疾等）延缓发作（或复发）

参考例句：

• The trial was postponed indefinitely. 审讯无限期延迟。
• The game has already been postponed three times. 这场比赛已经三度延期了。

10 coordinating   

v.使协调，使调和( coordinate的现在分词 )；协调；协同；成为同等

参考例句：

• He abolished the Operations Coordinating Board and the Planning Board. 他废除了行动协调委员会和计划委员会。 来自辞典例句
• He's coordinating the wedding, and then we're not going to invite him? 他是来协调婚礼的，难道我们不去请他？ 来自电影对白

11 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

12 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。

13 proliferated   

激增( proliferate的过去式和过去分词 )； （迅速）繁殖； 增生； 扩散

参考例句：

• Books and articles on the subject have proliferated over the last year. 过去一年以来，论及这一问题的书和文章大量涌现。
• Influenza proliferated throughout the country. 流感在全国蔓延。

14 impromptu   

adj.即席的，即兴的；adv.即兴的(地)，无准备的(地)

参考例句：

• The announcement was made in an impromptu press conference at the airport.这一宣布是在机场举行的临时新闻发布会上作出的。
• The children put on an impromptu concert for the visitors.孩子们为来访者即兴献上了一场音乐会。

15 ammunition   

n.军火，弹药

参考例句：

• A few of the jeeps had run out of ammunition.几辆吉普车上的弹药已经用光了。
• They have expended all their ammunition.他们把弹药用光。

16 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

17 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

18 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

19 eastwards   

adj.向东方（的），朝东（的）；n.向东的方向

参考例句：

• The current sets strongly eastwards.急流迅猛东去。
• The Changjiang River rolls on eastwards.长江滚滚向东流。