人民币升值能走多远(China lets the yuan rise—but how far?)

China has revalued its currency, the yuan, and linked it to a basket of currencies—though it is not yet clear how far it will be allowed to rise. The move may ease trade tension with America, though China's slowing economy, which is boosting its trade surplus, may reignite the spat¹

中国调整了它的货币（元）的价格，并将其与一篮子货币进行挂钩，但人民币升值能走多远目前尚不明晰。这样的行为能缓解中美之间紧张的贸易关系，尽管中国减缓的经济与日益增长的贸易顺差，也许会重新点燃双方的冲突。

SOONER or later, it was going to happen, and on Thursday July 21st it did. China abandoned the 11-year-old peg² of its currency, the yuan, at 8.28 to the dollar. From now on, the yuan will be linked to a basket of currencies, the central parities³ of which will be set at the end of each day. And the currency has been revalued, although by nothing like as much as America and others have been demanding: the yuan's initial central rate against the dollar was shifted by just 2.1%, to 8.11.

迟早会发生的事情，在7月21日星期四这天来临了。中国放弃了它实行11年的外汇制度——1美元兑8.28元人民币。从此以后，人民币将与一篮子货币进行挂钩，每个工作日闭市后公布人民币汇率的收盘价。尽管不如美国和其他国家期望的那么高，但人民币终于重估了：人民币对美元中心汇率上升2.1%，调整为1美元兑8.11元人民币。

So far, it is not clear exactly how the new system will operate. The Chinese called it a “managed floating exchange-rate regime”, which may well imply more management than floating. Neither the currencies in the basket used to set the level of the yuan, nor their weights, have been disclosed. The fact that the Chinese have acted at all is important. But the eventual⁴ economic and political effects of the revaluation will depend on how far and how fast the yuan moves from now on. In Friday's trading it barely budged—and in fact closed a fraction below 8.11 to the dollar, suggesting the authorities are keen to damp down market expectations of further rises.

新的系统将如何运作目前尚不清楚。中方称其为“有管理的浮动汇率制度”，很好地暗示了管理大于浮动。至于人民币与之挂钩的“一篮子货币”，既没有公开币种，也没有披露它们在其中的权重。虽然如此，中国官方调整汇率动作的本身就已经十分重要，但最终的政治和经济效应却取决于人民币汇率调整能走的多远，走的多快。在周五的交易市场上汇率几乎未有变动——事实上曾有跌破过8.11对1美元，暗示了官方的渴望：打压市场对进一步升值的预期。

Such a slight initial revaluation is unlikely to do much to slow China's fast-expanding economy. The day before the currency regime changed, the country's official statisticians said that GDP in the second quarter of 2005 was 9.5% higher than a year before—more than most pundits⁵ had forecast and only a shade less than the figure for the same period of 2004 (see chart below). Growth rates of industrial production, ahead by 16.8% in the year to June, and investment in fixed⁶ assets, up by 25.4% in the first half, year on year, have both eased from their levels at the end of 2003, but remain strong. Inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, is mild. It slid to 1.6% last month, down from 5%-plus a year ago.

如此轻微的汇率重估未必能减缓中国快速增长的经济。就在汇率制度改变前一天，国家的官方统计人员称2005年第二季度的GDP增长率是9.5%，比多数专家预期的高，只比2004年同期略低一点。工业生产截至六月增长率为16.8%，固定资产投资上半年同比增长25.4%，都比2003年底的水平有所缓和，但仍保持强劲增势。通货膨胀（通过消费价格指数衡量）上涨比较温和，从一年前的超过5%跌落到上个月的1.6%。

In truth, the economy is slowing more markedly than these (highly suspect) official figures suggest. Many economists⁸ say that China has an institutionalised[制度化的] bias[偏爱] to over-reporting growth at the bottom of a cycle and under-reporting it at the top, to reduce the volatility[浮夸] of the numbers. Judged by physical indicators⁹, such as electricity consumption[消费] or freight[货运] volumes, GDP growth probably peaked at over 12% in 2003 and should slow to 8% by 2006. Since China's macroeconomic[宏观经济] growth is driven more by fixed investment[固定资产投资] than by household consumption[家庭消费] (which dominates[占优] in the West), it is especially vulnerable to any slowing of corporate¹⁰ investment or public spending on infrastructure[基础设施].

“In investment cycles,” says Andy Xie, Asia economist⁷ at Morgan Stanley, “the leading indicators are profit margins¹¹[利率], product prices and property prices, which forecast corporate cash flow or ability to borrow.” These three indicators are slowing. For the past five years, Chinese industrial firms have enjoyed record[创记录的] profit margins as revenue growth has outpaced[超过] the increase in wages and raw-material[原料] costs. In 2003 and 2004, industrial production and sales grew at an annual rate of nearly 30% in real terms, analysts¹² estimate, but in 2005 the pace has slowed to around 15%. With commodity[日用品] prices high, companies' margins are being squeezed[挤压]: overheated industries such as cars, steel, cement[水泥] and basic materials are suffering especially.

Property prices are also moderating[缓和] after a period of extraordinary growth, particularly in big cities. Shanghai house prices, up by half since 1998 and by almost 10% in the first quarter of this year, have fallen back by 10-20% since mid-April. Transaction volumes[交易量] in most urban centres have also dropped, because the government has imposed a property-sales tax and tightened¹³ mortgage[抵押] requirements.

Overall, however, China seems to be managing the soft landing that it wants. The authorities have acted earlier and more decisively[果断地] than they did in the mid-1990s, curbing[抑制] growth before it gets out of hand. Policymakers have also been more sophisticated[圆滑], targeting selected sectors¹⁴ with administrative¹⁵ restrictions¹⁶ while shifting to market-based measures, including last October's increase in interest rates, to rein¹⁷ in[控制] money and credit growth. A dearer yuan—but much dearer, probably, than after this week's move—would give the economy another downward nudge[轻推].

In addition, the economy is looking better balanced: there are signs that consumer spending is doing more to support the economy, alongside fixed investment and exports. Rising incomes are boosting households' spending power, lifting retail¹⁸ sales by 13% in the first half of the year, compared with the same period of 2004. And the countryside is finally playing a part: after six years of lacklustre[无光泽地] growth, rural incomes rose by 12.5% in the first half.

That said, China's policymakers cannot afford to rest on their laurels[桂冠]. On the one hand, there is a risk that the economy will steam away again as spending for the Beijing Olympics in 2008 takes off. On the other, the vast amount of manufacturing capacity[制造能力] built up over the past few years means that a slightly sharper slowdown, perhaps triggered[被触发] by lower growth in America, could tip the country back into deflation[通缩]. Already, a staggering[令人惊愕的] nine-tenths of manufactured goods in China are thought to be in oversupply¹⁹[过度供给].

In the short term, the biggest worry is that China becomes a victim of its own international success. Until recently China has been a powerful engine driving the world economy. If it slows, existing[现有的] political and trade tensions[紧张] could still worsen. Thus an unfortunate side effect[副作用] of China's attempts to cool its domestic economy has been an exploding trade surplus[贸易顺差], because import growth has softened²⁰ while exports have remained robust[强健的]. In June, China's exports rose by 30.6%, year-on-year, while imports grew by just 15.1%, widening the monthly trade surplus to $9.7 billion. The cumulative[累计的] surplus for 2005 is now nearly $40 billion, more than for the whole of last year. This year's current-account surplus could reach 9% of GDP. “Just one year ago, China was the world's fastest-growing importer of heavy industrial products,” says Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia economist at UBS. “Today, the mainland is actually a growing net exporter, with shipments[出货] of not only textiles but also steel, other metals and chemicals accelerating visibly.”

Slowing imports (of everything but commodities) are bad news for international companies, at a time when those doing business in China are already suffering from increased competition and oversupply. And mainland firms are becoming aggressive exporters of everything from textiles and steel to electronics and even cars. Ningbo Bird[波导], based in Zhejiang province, is flooding Asia with cheap mobile-phone handsets it cannot sell profitably at home.

Revaluing the yuan should make some of the tensions created by all this less acute[强烈]. American politicians, in particular, have been demanding a step in this direction—President George Bush's spokesman welcomed the move. However, some congressmen have been demanding a much bigger stride[步幅]. And investment is becoming as touchy[难处理的] an issue as trade has been. China is no longer using its huge stock of foreign-exchange reserves[外汇储备]—over $700 billion—merely to buy American Treasury²¹ bonds[美国国债], but to snap up[抢购] physical assets too. The $18.5 billion contested bid by CNOOC, a big Chinese oil company, for America's Unocal is causing an uproar[骚动] in Washington, DC. China's currency move may dampen calls for trade protection and revaluation for a while. But if its domestic economy slows and thus becomes less supportive of global growth, such calls are likely to return soon.

1 spat   

n.口角，掌击；v.发出呼噜呼噜声

参考例句：

• Her parents always have spats.她的父母经常有些小的口角。
• There is only a spat between the brother and sister.那只是兄妹间的小吵小闹。

2 peg   

n.木栓，木钉；vt.用木钉钉，用短桩固定

参考例句：

• Hang your overcoat on the peg in the hall.把你的大衣挂在门厅的挂衣钩上。
• He hit the peg mightily on the top with a mallet.他用木槌猛敲木栓顶。

3 parities   

同等( parity的名词复数 )； 相等； 对等； 奇偶校验

参考例句：

• A system where no official parities for currencies are declared or maintained. 指一种官方不公开汇率目标的汇率制度。
• In 2000 developing countries accounted for 37% of world output (at purchasing power parities). 2000年时，发展中国家只占全世界经济产出的37%（以消费力平价计算）。

4 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。

5 pundits   

n.某一学科的权威，专家( pundit的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The pundits disagree on the best way of dealing with the problem. 如何妥善处理这一问题，专家众说纷纭。 来自辞典例句
• That did not stop Chinese pundits from making a fuss over it. 这并没有阻止中国的博学之士对此大惊小怪。 来自互联网

6 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

10 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

11 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

14 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 administrative   

adj.行政的，管理的

参考例句：

• The administrative burden must be lifted from local government.必须解除地方政府的行政负担。
• He regarded all these administrative details as beneath his notice.他认为行政管理上的这些琐事都不值一顾。

16 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

17 rein   

n.疆绳，统治，支配；vt.以僵绳控制，统治

参考例句：

• The horse answered to the slightest pull on the rein.只要缰绳轻轻一拉,马就作出反应。
• He never drew rein for a moment till he reached the river.他一刻不停地一直跑到河边。

18 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

19 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

20 softened   

（使）变软( soften的过去式和过去分词 )； 缓解打击； 缓和； 安慰

参考例句：

• His smile softened slightly. 他的微笑稍柔和了些。
• The ice cream softened and began to melt. 冰淇淋开始变软并开始融化。

21 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。