Analysts Discuss Yasser Arafat's Legacy

 

By Judith Latham

In this special report, Judith Latham discusses Mr. Arafat's legacy¹, the issue of succession, and the prospects² for progress toward peace and security with regional specialists.

Among the leaders of the Palestinian-American community, is physician Ziad Asali, president of the American Task Force on Palestine.

"Arafat is the only leader the Palestinians have known for several decades. He is the founder⁴, the George Washington, of modern-day Palestine, and he is especially revered⁵ as someone who made a singular contribution to the rebirth of Palestinian nationhood and the anticipation⁶ of statehood. Having said that and remembering his many achievements, it is clear that the Palestinians have been going through very difficult times for the last few years. And a good share of the blame has been assigned to the leadership. Although it is a mixed feeling, it's too bad he did not live [long] enough to establish a state."

With the passing of Mr. Arafat's political influence, Dr. Asali says he sees some hope for the emergence⁷ of a new Palestinian leadership that is more unified⁸ than in the past:

"There will be competing parties to take over decision-making on the part of the Palestinians. This is a time for unity³ for them, and they are all aware of that. It has been extremely impressive to those of us who watch the situation how the Palestinians have refrained from saying or doing anything that indicates division or conflict."

Dr. Asali also thinks that the new political reality in the Middle East may offer the Israeli government an opportunity to reassess the prospects for dialogue. And it may enable President Bush at the beginning of his second term to put greater pressure on both parties to negotiate.

"The most obvious thing is that it will take away the one card that made it possible for both the Israeli government and for the United States to say that there is no Palestinian partner," says Mr. Asali. "Whatever Palestinian leader emerges cannot be labeled as an unacceptable political partner, so it will have ramifications⁹ for the whole process of disengagement from Gaza. It certainly will have ramifications for the relations between the Palestinian leadership and the United States."

"There are possible attractive alternatives in the Palestinian leadership for a dialogue with the United States. And if those elements take over, it certainly would be easier for the Palestinians to negotiate their fate with the American administration that would have influence on the Israeli partner."

Aaron David Miller¹⁰, a former senior State Department adviser¹¹ for Arab-Israeli negotiations¹², has served six U.S. administrations. He is now president of Seeds of Peace, a grassroots organization that prepares Israeli and Arab teenagers with leadership skills need it to promote peace and coexistence. Mr. Miller says he believes that history's judgment¹³ on Yasser Arafat will be a mixed one:

"On the one hand, he will receive enormous credit as the individual embodiment of Palestinian nationalism, the man who essentially¹⁴ put the Palestinians on the political map and brought a divided, decentralized movement into the mainstream¹⁵ of international politics. On the other hand, I think history will judge him unkindly in that he never really made the transition from revolutionary Diaspora leader, capable of leading quite skillfully a divided national movement, into a position of leadership where he was able to create the foundation of good governance and smart negotiations.

"And I think emblematic¹⁶ of that fact is the period of July 2000 to December 2000 when, rather than putting a counter-offer on the table, which might have created follow up for negotiations with Mr. Barak at Camp David and with President Clinton, he chose to cling to the notion that Palestinians needed 100 percent."

Aaron Miller says, as a statesman, Yasser Arafat does not compare favorably with either Nelson Mandela or David Ben-Gurion, for example.

"It may well be that the circumstances confronting the Palestinian people were tougher. But leadership is leadership, and it requires vision, and it requires courage, and it requires sometimes an enormous capacity to risk. And while Mr. Arafat was willing to take that risk during the initial phases of the Oslo process, he wasn't able and willing to do it toward the end of his life," says Mr. Miller.

With respect to the Palestinian leader's successor and the emergence of a Palestinian state, Mr. Miller says, the future is unclear, although there are some guidelines:

"The basic law provides for a transitional mechanism¹⁷ for succession to Mr. Arafat within 60 days after the death or incapacitation of the Palestinian Authority executive. The speaker of the Palestinian Legislative¹⁸ Council should emerge as an interim¹⁹ successor, pending²⁰ elections. Now, I don't think there will be elections over the near term. And as a consequence, you are going to have a variation, which is already taking place.

"Abu Ala, who is currently Prime Minister, will assume responsibilities for running the Palestinian Authority, finances and security mainly. Abu Mazen, Secretary-General of the PLO and one of Arafat's senior colleagues over the last 30 or 40 years and involved in Fatah politics, will take over the PLO's Executive Committee and probably Fatah as an organization. That is the formal succession process."

Ambassador Phil Wilcox, the former U.S. Chief of Mission in Jerusalem, says the best way to ensure a permanent successor, who has respect and legitimacy²¹, would be for the Palestinians to hold elections. Ambassador Wilcox, who is now president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, says preliminary steps have already been taken.

"Indeed, they want elections, and Arafat had agreed to the beginning of an election process. Registration²² is already taking place. I don't know who would be elected if there is an election," says Mr. Wilcox. "There are younger Palestinian leaders. There are people like Mohammed Dahlan, in Gaza. There is Jib, Ril Rajoub, who is one of the security chiefs. There is Marwan Barghouti, who is now in jail. No one could predict who might win, but an election would be important because it would give a real mandate²³ to lead and a legitimacy that no other Palestinian has. Whether even an elected prime minister could halt the violence is problematical. Because unless there is a corresponding move on the Israeli side, it would be hard for any Palestinian leader to crack down on all of these dissident, fractious, and violent elements."

But the main problem of succession, Aaron Miller believes, is that Mr. Arafat dominated the Palestinian national movement for more than 50 years with more authority and more international weight than any Palestinian has now or is likely to have for the foreseeable future.

"Therein lies the real challenge. I would argue there is no identifiable or immediate²⁴ replacement²⁵ for Mr. Arafat. And that leaves open the real possibility that to empower his successors, once they are chosen and legitimized by the Palestinian public, will require enormous help and support from the government of Israel and a much different character to an American role in the Israeli-Palestinian problem," says Mr. Miller.

According to Aaron Miller, it is questionable²⁶ how much impetus²⁷ the Sharon government has to do business with Mr. Arafat's successor, even if he were a political moderate:

"My rule of thumb is to never pray for anything you really don't want. And the Israelis seem to have prayed - at least some Israelis prayed - for Arafat's passing. And they have it. The question is what are they going to do with it. In my view, they have a critical role in strengthening this Palestinian partner. The only game in town right now is Gaza first. And it has to be unmistakably clear, it seems to me, that 'Gaza first' is not 'Gaza last.'"

"That in effect the Israeli initiative moves from a unilateral focus to a bilateral²⁸ one. A Palestinian partner emerges, the Israelis negotiate a comprehensive withdrawal²⁹ from Gaza, the Palestinians have their security responsibilities, but it has to go beyond that. I think this process has to be linked to withdrawals³⁰ on the West Bank, tied to the broader issue of the Road Map or at least progress toward a two-state solution. The Israelis could take many steps economically, assuming the Palestinian Authority is willing to do what it needs to do, in an effort to relieve pressure on the Palestinian street and strengthen a new Palestinian Authority."

But most critical to any improvement in Israeli-Palestinian relations at this juncture³¹, former State Department advisor³² Aaron Miller says, is the role of the U.S. government.

"The Americans, it seems to me, have to change the nature of their involvement over the past four years. I believe a case can be made that a second Bush administration could be very well positioned to do that," says Mr. Miller, "Number one, it has tremendous currency in the bank with Israel. Number two, I think we will begin to disengage from Iraq over the course of the next 18 months. And as we disengage from Iraq, we're going to be looking for issues on which to reengage - issues that have real resonance³³ in the region."

"And there is no issue, frankly³⁴, that has great resonance that Israeli-Palestinian peace. And finally, a second Bush administration is freed from most of the constraints³⁵ of reelection politics. So, to summarize, you've got three factors that are coming together right now."

It remains³⁶ to be seen whether the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat can truly serve as a catalyst³⁷ for improved relations in the Middle East and for a greater U.S. role in peacemaking.

I'm Judith Latham in Washington.

注释：
task force （军）特遣部队
singular 非凡的
nationhood 作为一个国家的地位
emergence 浮现，露出
unified 统一的
take over 接收，接管
refrain from 制止，控制
reassess 再估价，再评价
unacceptable 不受欢迎的
ramification 分支
disengagement 脱离
grassroots 基层，基层群众
coexistence 共存
embodiment 体现
decentralized 分散的
emblematic 象征性，标记的
cling to 依附，依靠
transitional 过渡期的
mechanism 机制
incapacitation 无资格
pending 未决的
Jerusalem 耶路撒冷
preliminary 预备的，初步的
mandate 委任托管权
crack down on 制裁，镇压
dissident 持不同政见者
foreseeable 可预知的
legitimize 宣布合法化
impetus 推动力，促进
unilateral 单边的
bilateral 双边的
resonance 反响
catalyst 催化剂

1 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

2 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

3 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

4 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

5 revered   

v.崇敬，尊崇，敬畏( revere的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• A number of institutions revered and respected in earlier times have become Aunt Sally for the present generation. 一些早年受到尊崇的惯例，现在已经成了这代人嘲弄的对象了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The Chinese revered corn as a gift from heaven. 中国人将谷物奉为上天的恩赐。 来自辞典例句

6 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

7 emergence   

n.浮现，显现，出现，（植物）突出体

参考例句：

• The last decade saw the emergence of a dynamic economy.最近10年见证了经济增长的姿态。
• Language emerges and develops with the emergence and development of society.语言是随着社会的产生而产生，随着社会的发展而发展的。

8 unified   

(unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的

参考例句：

• The teacher unified the answer of her pupil with hers. 老师核对了学生的答案。
• The First Emperor of Qin unified China in 221 B.C. 秦始皇于公元前221年统一中国。

9 ramifications   

n.结果，后果( ramification的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These changes are bound to have widespread social ramifications. 这些变化注定会造成许多难以预料的社会后果。
• What are the ramifications of our decision to join the union? 我们决定加入工会会引起哪些后果呢？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 miller   

n.磨坊主

参考例句：

• Every miller draws water to his own mill.磨坊主都往自己磨里注水。
• The skilful miller killed millions of lions with his ski.技术娴熟的磨坊主用雪橇杀死了上百万头狮子。

11 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

12 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

13 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

14 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

15 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

16 emblematic   

adj.象征的，可当标志的；象征性

参考例句：

• The violence is emblematic of what is happening in our inner cities. 这种暴力行为正标示了我们市中心贫民区的状况。
• Whiteness is emblematic of purity. 白色是纯洁的象征。 来自辞典例句

17 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

18 legislative   

n.立法机构，立法权；adj.立法的，有立法权的

参考例句：

• Congress is the legislative branch of the U.S. government.国会是美国政府的立法部门。
• Today's hearing was just the first step in the legislative process.今天的听证会只是展开立法程序的第一步。

19 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

20 pending   

prep.直到，等待…期间；adj.待定的；迫近的

参考例句：

• The lawsuit is still pending in the state court.这案子仍在州法庭等待定夺。
• He knew my examination was pending.他知道我就要考试了。

21 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。

22 registration   

n.登记，注册，挂号

参考例句：

• Marriage without registration is not recognized by law.法律不承认未登记的婚姻。
• What's your registration number?你挂的是几号？

23 mandate   

n.托管地；命令，指示

参考例句：

• The President had a clear mandate to end the war.总统得到明确的授权结束那场战争。
• The General Election gave him no such mandate.大选并未授予他这种权力。

24 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

25 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

26 questionable   

adj.可疑的，有问题的

参考例句：

• There are still a few questionable points in the case.这个案件还有几个疑点。
• Your argument is based on a set of questionable assumptions.你的论证建立在一套有问题的假设上。

27 impetus   

n.推动，促进，刺激；推动力

参考例句：

• This is the primary impetus behind the economic recovery.这是促使经济复苏的主要动力。
• Her speech gave an impetus to my ideas.她的讲话激发了我的思绪。

28 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。

29 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

30 withdrawals   

n.收回，取回，撤回( withdrawal的名词复数 )；撤退，撤走；收回[取回，撤回，撤退，撤走]的实例；推出（组织），提走（存款），戒除毒瘾，对说过的话收回，孤僻

参考例句：

• He has made several withdrawals from his bank account. 他从银行账户上提了几次款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It is not the bank's policy to deduct interest on withdrawals. 提款需扣除利息这并非是本银行的政策。 来自辞典例句

31 juncture   

n.时刻，关键时刻，紧要关头

参考例句：

• The project is situated at the juncture of the new and old urban districts.该项目位于新老城区交界处。
• It is very difficult at this juncture to predict the company's future.此时很难预料公司的前景。

32 advisor   

n.顾问，指导老师，劝告者

参考例句：

• They employed me as an advisor.他们聘请我当顾问。
• The professor is engaged as a technical advisor.这位教授被聘请为技术顾问。

33 resonance   

n.洪亮；共鸣；共振

参考例句：

• Playing the piano sets up resonance in those glass ornaments.一弹钢琴那些玻璃饰物就会产生共振。
• The areas under the two resonance envelopes are unequal.两个共振峰下面的面积是不相等的。

34 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

35 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

36 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

37 catalyst   

n.催化剂，造成变化的人或事

参考例句：

• A catalyst is a substance which speeds up a chemical reaction.催化剂是一种能加速化学反应的物质。
• The workers'demand for better conditions was a catalyst for social change.工人们要求改善工作条件促进了社会变革。