时事英语－英语新闻导读 2004.3.1

人民币升值对美国的危害
How a Stronger Yuan Could Hurt the U.S.　 

《纽约时报》

人民币对美元的汇率在最近数月已成为人们关注的大问题，它似乎成了今后美国繁荣的主要威胁。
 
How a Stronger Yuan Could Hurt the U.S.
By EDUARDO PORTER

Published: February 29, 2004

From all the attention given to the Chinese yuan in recent months, it would seem that the currency is a major threat to American prosperity.

American manufacturers have railed for months against the yuan's peg¹ to the dollar. They contend that a cheap currency gives Chinese exporters unfair advantage, contributing to the $124 billion bilateral² trade deficit³ and threatening American jobs.

Adding official gravitas to the complaint, Treasury⁴ Secretary John W. Snow even threatened to hold China's "feet to the fire" if it did not relax the yuan's decade-long peg of 8.28 to the dollar and let it float higher. Last week, he sent a delegation⁵ to Beijing to convey the point to authorities there.

Despite the heated words, it is not clear that making China jack⁶ up the yuan would be in the best interest of the United States.

A nominal⁷ appreciation⁸ of the yuan would do little to change the international competitiveness of Chinese producers. Barry P. Bosworth, an economist⁹ at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that a rising yuan would reduce prices of imported goods in China, cool Chinese inflation and thus restore the currency's competitive edge.

In fact, China's global trade is in better balance than that of the United States. Its current account surplus - the broad trade in goods and services, as well as interest payments - is equivalent to only about 1.5 percent of its total gross domestic product. The current account deficit of the United States amounts to about 5 percent of G.D.P.

But neither gap can be closed by just tinkering with the bilateral exchange rate. China has a surplus because it saves a lot and spends little. The United States, on the other hand, spends beyond its means. "Changing an exchange rate does not change these net savings¹⁰ propensities¹¹ in any obvious ways," Ronald I. McKinnon, an economist at Stanford, wrote in an academic paper last summer.

A change in foreign exchange policy, though, could lead China and other Asian countries to channel less money into the United States, which could push interest rates higher and eventually force Americans to change their spending habits.

China keeps the yuan's exchange rate low against the dollar by printing money to buy dollar-denominated securities. If it were to float the yuan, it would need to buy less. And if neighbors like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan shadowed the move and let their currencies also rise against the dollar, as many economists¹² expect, they could put a collective brake on the United States' extraordinary access to foreign money.

According to the Treasury Department, foreigners plowed¹³ a record $744 billion into American securities of all sorts in 2003, up from $548 billion the previous year.

The government used much of that to pay for its budget deficit. Foreigners now hold about 40 percent of outstanding American Treasury securities. And nearly 60 percent of the foreign flows last year were channeled into Treasuries¹⁴ and other government agency bonds.

ASIA provided a substantial amount of that cash. Last year, China's foreign exchange reserves grew by $160 billion as the central bank tried to mop up the flood of investment from abroad and keep a lid on the exchange rate. Then the Chinese turned around and spent more than $60 billion of this to buy United States Treasury and other government bonds.

Other Asian countries followed suit. Japan alone funneled¹⁵ $171 billion into Treasuries and other United States government securities last year as it intervened to hold down the yen¹⁶. Taiwan bought $18 billion worth of United States government paper. South Korea bought $14 billion. In the last two years, money flows from Asian countries into American government securities covered two-thirds of the $650 billion growth in the public debt of the United States.

If they stopped, it would probably hurt. "It's hard to buy the argument that a retrenchment¹⁷ by foreign central banks would not have an impact on Treasury yields," said Rebecca McCaughrin, an economist at Morgan Stanley.

Of course, a shift in exchange rates across Asia would not cut off all Asian money flows to the United States. Not all of the Asian financing is prompted by central banks intervening in foreign exchange markets. Some of the money comes from private investors¹⁸. And central banks would still have to intervene to maintain a new foreign exchange peg.

Jim O'Neill, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, said he thought China and other Asian countries had already shifted a big part of their reserves out of the dollar - perhaps preparing for a currency realignment - and could thus change their exchange rate without causing much stress to interest rates in the United States.

But as the rhetoric¹⁹ against China's foreign exchange arrangements has escalated²⁰, investors are growing wary²¹. "When I speak to clients around the world it is invariably the first or second question they ask," Mr. O'Neill said. "A lot of people out there are very bearish²² about U.S. bonds. This is another reason to worry."

1 peg   

n.木栓，木钉；vt.用木钉钉，用短桩固定

参考例句：

• Hang your overcoat on the peg in the hall.把你的大衣挂在门厅的挂衣钩上。
• He hit the peg mightily on the top with a mallet.他用木槌猛敲木栓顶。

2 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。

3 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

4 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

5 delegation   

n.代表团；派遣

参考例句：

• The statement of our delegation was singularly appropriate to the occasion.我们代表团的声明非常适合时宜。
• We shall inform you of the date of the delegation's arrival.我们将把代表团到达的日期通知你。

6 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

7 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

8 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

11 propensities   

n.倾向，习性( propensity的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• This paper regarded AFT as a criterion to estimate slagging propensities. 文中以灰熔点作为判断煤灰结渣倾向的标准。 来自互联网
• Our results demonstrate that different types of authoritarian regime face different propensities to develop toward democracy. 本文研究结果显示，不同的威权主义政体所面对的民主发展倾向是不同的。 来自互联网

12 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 plowed   

v.耕( plow的过去式和过去分词 )；犁耕；费力穿过

参考例句：

• They plowed nearly 100,000 acres of virgin moorland. 他们犁了将近10万英亩未开垦的高沼地。 来自辞典例句
• He plowed the land and then sowed the seeds. 他先翻土，然后播种。 来自辞典例句

14 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

15 funneled   

漏斗状的

参考例句：

• The crowd funneled through the hall. 群众从走廊中鱼贯而过。
• The large crowd funneled out of the gates after the football match. 足球赛后大群人从各个门中涌出。

16 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

17 retrenchment   

n.节省，删除

参考例句：

• Retrenchment will be necessary. 有必要进行紧缩。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Defense planners predict an extended period of retrenchment. 国防规划人员预计开支紧缩期会延长。 来自辞典例句

18 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

19 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

20 escalated   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The fighting escalated into a full-scale war. 这场交战逐步扩大为全面战争。
• The demonstration escalated into a pitched battle with the police. 示威逐步升级，演变成了一场同警察的混战。

21 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

22 bearish   

adj.(行情)看跌的，卖空的

参考例句：

• It is foolish not to invest in stocks,so I will show her how to be bearish without them too,if she chooses.不投资股票是愚蠢的，因此如果她选择股票，我会向她展示怎样在没有长期潜力的情况下进行卖空。
• I think a bearish market must be a good time for bargain-hunters to invest.我觉得熊市对于想买低的人可是个投资的大好机会。