投资者需调低回报预期

 　　Markets favour clarity and while clarity seems easy with hindsight, it’s rarely as stress-free when looking ahead.

　　市场喜欢清晰；虽然事后来看有些事情显而易见，但在展望未来时却很少会那么毫无压力地看得清楚。

　　It’s interesting how that can be forgotten — in particular at moments of transition for markets and the macro economy. We are at a transition point currently and transitions are bumpy¹. As an investor², it’s important to determine the implications of being right or wrong about a particular path. What should never be in doubt is the need for long-term money to stay invested.

　　有趣的是，人们怎么会忘记这一点，尤其是在市场和宏观经济转折之际。我们目前正在转折期间，而转折是颠簸的。作为一名投资者，重要的是确定某一条路径正确与否的潜在影响。永远不应怀疑的是，长期资金有必要持续投资。

　　We have seen several strong double-digit-return years since the financial crisis. Higher than normal returns become expected and they shouldn’t be. We’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle and, in reality, it offers less clarity than investors³ have come to expect from an ageing bull market. The outlook is good, not great, and the risks have risen. Return expectations need to be managed lower.

　　自金融危机以来，我们已经看到有多年取得了两位数的强劲回报。超过正常水平的回报率变成了人们期望的常态，这是不应该的。我们进入了这个投资周期的末期，现实地讲，它提供的清晰度不如投资者对一个年迈的牛市产生的预期。前景不错，但并非特别好，而风险已经上升。回报预期有必要被调低。

　　Global growth slowed last year, stalled by emerging economies. The US and China are the foundation economies for sustainable moderate global growth. We do not believe that the US or China will fall into recession in 2016. China falling into recession would, in our opinion, be more damaging to global growth than a more aggressive path of Fed tightening⁴.

　　去年全球增长由于新兴经济体的拖累而放缓。美国和中国是全球可持续适度增长的基础经济体。我们认为美国和中国不会在2016年陷入衰退。在我们看来，中国陷入衰退对全球增长的破坏将超过美联储(Fed)走上更为激进的收紧政策之路。

　　The US is furthest along in expansion, with Europe and Japan in recovery but clearly disappointing in momentum⁵. Emerging markets are recovering from a credit crunch⁶ and an overextended investment boom. We have had meaningful debate about whether emerging markets will be the tipping point that stalls the global economy in 2016. While not our base case, we remain concerned that there may be additional spillover effects from developing economies that can weigh again on global markets.

　　美国在经济扩张的路上走得最远，欧洲和日本正在复苏，但显然在势头方面令人失望。新兴市场正在从信贷危机和过度的投资热潮中复苏。我们已经就新兴市场会不会是2016年拖累全球经济的引爆点进行了有意义的辩论。我们依然担心，发展中经济体可能产生更多的溢出效应，再度拖累全球市场，尽管这并非我们的基准预测。

　　Should commodity market rebalancing get worse, the non-linear effects of lower commodity prices may lead to a significant rise in financial stress, defaults and possible contagion⁷. Latin America, the Middle East and Africa stand out as ongoing⁸ concerns. Asia continues to look better positioned to navigate⁹ the year ahead but we expect local currency markets to be a great deal more volatile¹⁰ and pressured. Fed tightening and China’s response via currency depreciation¹¹ will be the drivers.

　　如果大宗商品市场的再平衡恶化，大宗商品价格下跌的非线性效应可能导致金融压力显著上升、违约，还有可能蔓延。拉美、中东和非洲持续令人担忧。亚洲继续有望在未来一年处于比较有利的地位，但我们预计当地汇市将会剧烈波动，并承受巨大压力。推动因素将是美联储收紧政策以及中国通过贬值来应对。

　　It’s easy to point to the drumbeat for Fed tightening as the culprit behind challenging equity¹² markets. In reality, high valuations, as well as disappointing sales and earnings¹³, have more to do with it. While we are not overly concerned about current valuation levels, returns need to be driven by earnings growth.

　　人们很容易将美联储收紧政策的号角视为股市低迷的罪魁祸首。实际上，高估值以及令人失望的销售数据和利润的因素更大一些。尽管我们没有过度担忧当前的估值水平，但回报率需要得到利润增长的推动。

　　Earnings dispersion remains¹⁴ an important driver of sector¹⁵ returns but the year ahead is going to be more nuanced and company-specific. That should favour active managers.

　　盈利的离散性仍是具体行业回报的重要推动因素，但未来一年的差别将更加细腻，要具体分析特定公司的情况，这应该有利于主动型基金经理。

　　It is central to note that portfolio¹⁶ diversification¹⁷ becomes more important the later we get in a cycle — there is less of a value cushion to allow for being wrong. That puts greater emphasis on the need for diversification of investment risk across a portfolio. Asset allocation, at its core, is about measuring and managing investment risk. The further along in a cycle, the more important it becomes.

　　有必要指出的是，越处于投资周期的末期，分散投资就越重要——允许犯错的价值缓冲减少了。这意味着在投资组合中更加注重分散投资风险。资产配置的核心内涵就是衡量和管理投资风险。一个周期越接近末期，资产配置就越重要。

　　Investors should expect low single-digit returns from fixed¹⁸ income and, hopefully, mid-to-high single-digit returns from equity markets. Equity market returns will be driven by earnings growth and dividends¹⁹. If earnings disappoint, valuations will be under pressure as investors demand a higher risk premium²⁰ for a less certain earnings stream. That will lower returns. A lack of clarity is discounted by markets in the form of higher risk premia — whether wider credit spreads or lower equity multiples.

　　投资者的预期应该是从固定收益获得较小的个位数回报，从股市获得较高的个位数回报。股市回报将受到利润增长和股息的推动。如果利润令人失望，估值将会承压，因为投资者要求对不那么确定的利润流获得更高的风险溢价。这将降低回报率。缺乏清晰度被市场以风险溢价上升的形式计入——无论是信贷息差扩大还是股市市盈率降低。

　　Across portfolios²¹ we are overweight global equities²² and alternative investments versus²³ fixed income. Coming into 2016, the size of our equity overweight versus benchmarks is lower. We are overweight developed equity markets, avoiding emerging markets for now and continue to invest in hedge funds across portfolios that can own them. We currently hold no direct investment allocations to commodities.

　　在整个投资组合中，我们在全球股市和另类投资上超配，固定收益上低配。进入2016年之际，我们在股市的超配程度下降。我们现在在发达国家的股市超配，暂时回避新兴市场，并继续在可以拥有对冲基金的投资组合中投资于对冲基金。我们目前没有直接的大宗商品投资。

　　Market and macro expansions tend to run longer and we believe we’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle, an important transition point. The path of least resistance for markets is to move higher — but at a slower and bumpier²⁴ pace.

　　市场和宏观经济扩张的周期往往较长，我们相信现在已经进入了投资周期的末期，这是一个重要的转折点。对市场来说，阻力最小的路径是向上走，但步伐将更为缓慢和坎坷。

1 bumpy   

adj.颠簸不平的，崎岖的

参考例句：

• I think we've a bumpy road ahead of us.我觉得我们将要面临一段困难时期。
• The wide paved road degenerated into a narrow bumpy track.铺好的宽阔道路渐渐变窄，成了一条崎岖不平的小径。

2 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

5 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

6 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

7 contagion   

n.(通过接触的疾病)传染；蔓延

参考例句：

• A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
• The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

8 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

9 navigate   

v.航行，飞行；导航，领航

参考例句：

• He was the first man to navigate the Atlantic by air.他是第一个飞越大西洋的人。
• Such boats can navigate on the Nile.这种船可以在尼罗河上航行。

10 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

11 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。

12 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

13 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

14 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

15 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

16 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

17 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

18 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

19 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

20 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

21 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网

22 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

23 versus   

prep.以…为对手，对；与…相比之下

参考例句：

• The big match tonight is England versus Spain.今晚的大赛是英格兰对西班牙。
• The most exciting game was Harvard versus Yale.最富紧张刺激的球赛是哈佛队对耶鲁队。

24 bumpier   

adj.困难重重的( bumpy的比较级 )；崎岖的；（使） 处境艰难；气流不稳的

参考例句：