美联储鸽派 过早加息并不明智

 　　The prospects¹ of a Federal Reserve interest rate rise this month receded² further yesterday after a senior policymaker set out a series of arguments for not rushing into an increase.

　　美联储(Federal Reserve)本月加息的可能性昨日进一步减小，原因是一名资深政策制定者阐述了一系列不急于加息的理由。

　　Amid fevered speculation³ about the US central bank’s policy meeting next week, which on Friday helped trigger the worst bout⁴ of market turmoil⁵ since the Brexit vote, Lael Brainard called for caution on rates.

　　在美国央行下周政策会议引发狂热猜测的背景下（上周五这些猜测在一定程度上引发了自英国公投退欧以来最糟糕的市场动荡），莱尔?布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)呼吁在利率上谨慎。

　　She cited doggedly⁶ below-target inflation, risks from overseas and a limited arsenal⁷ to counter future economic setbacks.

　　她提到了顽固低于目标的通胀，来自海外的风险，以及应对未来经济挫折的武器有限。

　　The comments by Ms Brainard, a dovish Fed governor and permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, will make it harder for Fed hawks⁸ to seal the case for an increase in rates as soon as September 21.

　　布雷纳德是一名鸽派的美联储理事和联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)常任成员，她的这些言论将加大美联储鹰派最早在9月21日就拍板加息的难度。

　　Interest rates futures⁹ indicated yesterday that investors¹⁰ see a 22 per cent chance of a rate hike this month, down from 28 per cent before she spoke¹¹.

　　昨日利率期货显示，投资者认为本月加息的几率为22%，低于布雷纳德发表上述讲话之前的28%。

　　The Fed would run the risk of provoking a sharp market reaction if it surprised investors by moving next week.

　　美联储如果在下周出乎投资者意料上调利率，将面临引发剧烈市场反应的风险。

　　In recent weeks, divisions have opened up between US central bank policymakers over when to move rates as some officials fret¹² about the risks of waiting too long and allowing the economy to overheat.

　　最近几周，美国央行政策制定者在何时加息的问题上暴露出分歧。一些官员为等待太久、以至于让经济过热的风险发愁。

　　Ms Brainard made clear in her speech that she thinks the risks of tightening¹⁴ policy too soon far outweigh¹⁵ those of waiting, given the economic hazards looming¹⁶ globally.

　　布雷纳德在演讲中表明，鉴于全球浮现的经济阴霾，她认为收紧政策过早的风险远远超过等待的风险。

　　She told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that Fed policymakers needed to take into account a number of new factors in setting rates.

　　她告诉芝加哥全球事务委员会(Chicago Council on Global Affairs)，美联储政策制定者在设定利率时需要考虑一些新的因素。

　　Among them was inflation’s persistently¹⁷ below-target level, and the possibility that the relationship between strong hiring and inflation has weakened.

　　这些因素包括持续低于目标的通胀水平，以及强劲招聘与通胀之间关联度已经减弱的可能性。

　　Recent developments suggest some reasons to be concerned more about undershooting than overshooting on inflation, she said.

　　近期事态似乎表明，有一些理由更担忧（通胀）偏低，而不是偏高，她说。

　　In addition, indicators¹⁸ such as the depressed¹⁹ rate of labour-force participation²⁰ among prime-age people and low wage growth meant the Fed should be open to the possibility of material further progress in the labour market, suggesting its officials should not do anything to get in the way.

　　此外，一些指标——如壮年人群的劳动参与率低迷，以及工资涨幅较低——意味着，美联储应该对劳动力市场进一步实质性进展的可能性抱有开放心态，暗示美联储官员不应该有任何挡路行为。

　　In the presence of uncertainty²¹ and the absence of accelerating inflationary pressures, it would be unwise for policy to foreclose on the possibility of making further gains in the labour market, Ms Brainard argued.

　　在不确定性存在、而加速的通胀压力不存在的情况下，让政策扼杀劳动力市场取得进一步进展的可能性将是不明智的，布雷纳德主张道。

　　To the extent that the effect on inflation of further gradual tightening in labour market conditions is likely to be moderate and gradual, the case to tighten¹³ policy preemptively is less compelling.

　　劳动力市场状况进一步逐渐收紧对通胀的影响很可能是温和、渐进的，就此而言，先发制人收紧政策的理由不那么充足。

　　The two-year Treasury²² yield had nudged to as high as 0.8 per cent ahead of Ms Brainard’s speech, but fell to a low of 0.775 per cent immediately after.

　　布雷纳德发表讲话之前，两年期美国国债收益率一度涨至0.8%的高点，但在她发言后很快跌至0.775%。

　　Longer-maturity Treasuries²³ were largely unmoved, and the two-year yield eventually settled at 0.78 per cent, roughly where it had started the day.

　　期限较长的美国国债基本上未受影响，而两年期国债收益率最终稳定在0.78%，与开盘时大致相当。

1 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

2 receded   

v.逐渐远离( recede的过去式和过去分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题

参考例句：

• The floodwaters have now receded. 洪水现已消退。
• The sound of the truck receded into the distance. 卡车的声音渐渐在远处消失了。

3 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

4 bout   

n.侵袭，发作；一次(阵，回)；拳击等比赛

参考例句：

• I was suffering with a bout of nerves.我感到一阵紧张。
• That bout of pneumonia enfeebled her.那次肺炎的发作使她虚弱了。

5 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

6 doggedly   

adv.顽强地，固执地

参考例句：

• He was still doggedly pursuing his studies.他仍然顽强地进行着自己的研究。
• He trudged doggedly on until he reached the flat.他顽强地、步履艰难地走着，一直走回了公寓。

7 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

8 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。

9 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

12 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

13 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

14 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

15 outweigh   

vt.比...更重，...更重要

参考例句：

• The merits of your plan outweigh the defects.你制定的计划其优点胜过缺点。
• One's merits outweigh one's short-comings.功大于过。

16 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

17 persistently   

ad.坚持地；固执地

参考例句：

• He persistently asserted his right to a share in the heritage. 他始终声称他有分享那笔遗产的权利。
• She persistently asserted her opinions. 她果断地说出了自己的意见。

18 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

19 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

20 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

21 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

22 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

23 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网