中国第三季度GDP的五大看点

 　　China’s National Bureau of Statistics will tomorrow report its latest quarterly estimate for economic growth, which has stabilised after the world’s second-largest economy was rocked by a dual¹ market and currency crisis in January.

　　中国国家统计局将于明日公布对经济增长的最新季度估计值。

　　For Beijing, economic stability is paramount² as it focuses on reining³ in runaway⁴ corporate⁵ debt levels.

　　自中国这个全球第二大经济体1月份遭遇市场和汇率双重危机的震动后，其经济增长已恢复稳定。在北京方面专注于抑制失控的公司债务水平之际，经济稳定对其至关重要。

　　Investors⁶ and economists⁷ were largely reassured⁸ by the 6.7 per cent growth figure reported for the first and second quarters, in line with the 6.5-7 per cent target prescribed by Chinese policymakers late last year.

　　此前公布的一季度与二季度6.7%的增长率让投资者和经济学家基本放心，这一数字符合去年底中国政策制定者设定的6.5%至7%的目标值。

　　But they will be asking whether a credible⁹ debt-reduction effort is really compatible with continued growth in that range.

　　但他们将提出一个疑问，即可行的减债努力是否真能与这一数值范围内的持续增长并行不悖。

　　Here are five things to look out for:

　　以下五点需要注意：

　　The property sector¹⁰ and its contribution to growth

　　房地产业及其对增长的贡献

　　Real estate has been the driving force behind China’s economy this year.

　　今年房地产一直驱动着中国经济。

　　Some analysts¹¹ estimate that after factoring in property developers’ demand for cement, steel and other construction materials, it ultimately accounts for more than half of total investment.

　　一些分析师估计，如果算上房地产开发商对水泥、钢铁及其他建筑材料的需求，房地产最终占总投资一半以上。

　　The sector is a contradictory¹² one, characterised by price surges in China’s largest economic centres but also oversupply¹³ and stagnation¹⁴ in smaller cities.

　　房地产是一个矛盾的行业，其特点是中国几大经济中心城市房价暴涨，但较小城市存在供过于求和停滞现象。

　　As part of Beijing’s larger effort to control ballooning debt levels, more than a dozen municipal governments have introduced measures to cool overheated markets — a potential drag on future growth.

　　作为北京方面控制不断升高的债务水平的更大努力的一部分，十多个市政府已经采取措施为过热的市场降温，这可能对未来的增长造成拖累。

　　On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release its monthly survey of 70 municipal property markets.

　　本周五，中国国家统计局将公布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。

　　Infrastructure¹⁵ and private sector investment

　　基础设施和私营部门投资

　　The Chinese government has pledged no more repeats of the debt-fuelled investment surge that maintained the country’s economic momentum¹⁶ through the global financial crisis.

　　中国政府已承诺不会再重复债务驱动的投资热潮，这一热潮曾支撑中国在全球经济危机期间维持了经济增长势头。

　　The pain felt in coal and steel-producing regions, especially in the first quarter of this year, was evidence of Beijing’s commitment to a new normal of slower, more balanced growth.

　　煤炭和钢铁生产行业所感受到的痛苦（尤其是今年一季度），证明了北京方面坚持更缓慢、更平衡增长的新常态的决心。

　　But with private sector companies failing to pick up much of the slack, economic planners have encouraged infrastructure investment by state-owned enterprises.

　　但由于私营部门企业未能挑起大梁，经济规划者已鼓励国有企业投资基础设施。

　　While this is not necessarily another growth-for-growth’s-sake splurge on wasteful¹⁷ projects given the real need for beneficial investment in everything from public transportation to water treatment facilities, it cannot continue indefinitely given the state sector’s high debt levels.

　　鉴于从公共交通到水处理厂等一切领域都确实需要有益的投资，此番投资不一定是又一次为了增长而增长的浪费性项目投资热潮，但考虑到国有部门的高债务水平，这种投资也不可能无限期持续。

　　Industrial production

　　工业生产

　　Less than a year after annual steel and power output contracted for the first time in two decades, manufacturers and even the long-suffering coal and steel producers have enjoyed a summer resurgence¹⁸.

　　在年度钢产量和发电量20年来首次出现萎缩后不到一年，制造商乃至长期处于困境中的煤炭和钢铁生产商都迎来了一个夏天的复苏。

　　Coal and steel producers should continue to benefit as Beijing weeds out weaker players in both sectors¹⁹.

　　随着北京方面在煤钢行业淘汰实力较弱的企业，煤钢生产商应该会继续受益。

　　While ministers have consistently rejected international criticism of the havoc²⁰ wreaked²¹ by Chinese steel exports, the State Council is standing²² by its commitment to reduce steel capacity.

　　尽管部长们一直拒绝接受国际社会对中国钢材出口引发钢价暴跌的批评，但中国国务院坚守其削减钢铁产能的承诺。

　　Inflation

　　通货膨胀

　　Chinese producer price deflation disappeared in September for the first time since early 2012, thanks in part to higher coal and steel prices.

　　今年9月，中国工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比变动自2012年初以来首次由负转正，这部分得益于上涨的煤炭和钢材价格。

　　Producer prices increased 0.1 per cent year on year while consumer prices rebounded²³ 1.9 per cent on an annual basis, up from 1.3 per cent in August.

　　PPI同比上涨0.1%，而居民消费价格总水平(CPI)同比上涨1.9%，比8月的1.3%有所提高。

　　This progress should be reflected in an acceleration²⁴ in nominal²⁵ gross domestic product growth — continuing a trend evident in the second quarter — and a larger deflator, which is the broadest measure of price changes across the economy.

　　这一进步应该会反映在名义国内生产总值(GDP)增速加快（延续第二季度的明显势头）以及更高的平减指数（衡量整体经济价格变化的最广义指标）中。

　　Most importantly, continued increases in inflation will help companies pare back their debt loads.

　　最重要的是，通胀持续上升将帮助企业减轻债务负担。

　　Services and private consumption

　　服务业和私人消费

　　As evidence that a rebalancing of China’s economy is well under way, consumption contributed 4.9 percentage points of the first half’s annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent.

　　在上半年6.7%的年化增长率中，消费的贡献为4.9个百分点，这一证据证明中国经济再平衡已真正启动。

　　Investment accounted for just 2.5 points while net exports subtracted 0.7 points.

　　投资仅贡献2.5个百分点，而净出口的贡献是-0.7个百分点。

　　But there are signs that previously²⁶ robust²⁷ services growth is slowing, especially after last year’s stock market crash.

　　但有迹象表明，此前增长强劲的服务业正在放缓，特别是在去年股市暴跌之后。

1 dual   

adj.双的；二重的，二元的

参考例句：

• The people's Republic of China does not recognize dual nationality for any Chinese national.中华人民共和国不承认中国公民具有双重国籍。
• He has dual role as composer and conductor.他兼作曲家及指挥的双重身分。

2 paramount   

a.最重要的，最高权力的

参考例句：

• My paramount object is to save the Union and destroy slavery.我的最高目标是拯救美国，摧毁奴隶制度。
• Nitrogen is of paramount importance to life on earth.氮对地球上的生命至关重要。

3 reining   

勒缰绳使（马）停步( rein的现在分词 )； 驾驭； 严格控制； 加强管理

参考例句：

• "That's a fine bevy, Ma'm,'said Gerald gallantly, reining his horse alongside the carriage. "太太！好一窝漂亮的云雀呀！" 杰拉尔德殷勤地说，一面让自己的马告近塔尔顿的马车。
• I was a temperamental genius in need of reining in by stabler personalities. 我是个需要由更稳重的人降服住的神经质的天才。

4 runaway   

n.逃走的人，逃亡，亡命者；adj.逃亡的，逃走的

参考例句：

• The police have not found the runaway to date.警察迄今没抓到逃犯。
• He was praised for bringing up the runaway horse.他勒住了脱缰之马受到了表扬。

5 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 reassured   

adj.使消除疑虑的；使放心的v.再保证，恢复信心( reassure的过去式和过去分词)

参考例句：

• The captain's confidence during the storm reassured the passengers. 在风暴中船长的信念使旅客们恢复了信心。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The doctor reassured the old lady. 医生叫那位老妇人放心。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

10 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

11 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

12 contradictory   

adj.反驳的，反对的，抗辩的；n.正反对，矛盾对立

参考例句：

• The argument is internally contradictory.论据本身自相矛盾。
• What he said was self-contradictory.他讲话前后不符。

13 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

14 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

15 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

16 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

17 wasteful   

adj.（造成）浪费的，挥霍的

参考例句：

• It is a shame to be so wasteful.这样浪费太可惜了。
• Duties have been reassigned to avoid wasteful duplication of work.为避免重复劳动浪费资源，任务已经重新分派。

18 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

19 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

20 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

21 wreaked   

诉诸（武力），施行（暴力），发（脾气）( wreak的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city. 地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• They have wreaked dreadful havoc among the wildlife by shooting and trapping. 他们射杀和诱捕野生动物，造成了严重的破坏。

22 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

23 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

24 acceleration   

n.加速，加速度

参考例句：

• All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
• He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。

25 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

26 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

27 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。