世界难以摆脱特朗普烙印

 The news that Donald Trump¹ has in effectsecured the Republican party’s nomination² for the US presidency³ took me back toEurope in 2002. Back then it was a huge shock when Jean-Marie Le Pen, afar-right candidate, made it through to the last two in the French presidentialelection. I remember going to the EU press room in Brussels the morning afterMr Le Pen’s initial success, and witnessing the horror and shame of my Frenchcolleagues.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)实质上锁定了美国共和党总统候选人提名的消息，令我回想起了2002年的欧洲。当时，极右翼候选人让-马里?勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)在法国总统选举中一路杀入最后的两人对决，引起巨大震动。还记得在勒庞在第一轮投票中取得成功后的那天早上，我去布鲁塞尔的欧盟新闻中心，见证了我的法国同行的恐惧和羞耻。

The good news is that Mr Le Pen was soundlybeaten in the final round. The bad news is that, in retrospect⁴, hisbreakthrough marked a turning point in European politics.

好消息是勒庞在最终一轮投票中大败。坏消息则是，回想起来，他所取得的突破标志着欧洲政治的转折点。

Ever since 2002, the themes that Mr Le Penchampioned —nationalism, a hatred⁵ of immigration, denunciation of “unpatriotic”elites⁶,fear of Islam, rejection⁷ of the EU, protectionism —have grownin strength in Europe.

自2002年以来，民族主义、对移民的憎恨、对“不爱国”精英的谴责、对伊斯兰的恐惧、对欧盟的抵制、保护主义，这些勒庞一力倡导的主题思想，在欧洲日益发展壮大。

The far right has not yet formed agovernment in western Europe. But it has changed the debate and forcedmainstream politicians to embrace some of their themes.

极右翼目前还未在西欧哪国组建政府。不过，它已经改变了政治辩论，迫使主流政客接受他们的部分主题思想。

I fear that the same thing will happen withMr Trump. The odds⁹ are that the “Republican” (if that is what he is) will loseto Hillary Clinton in November. But the Trump campaign has already changed USand world politics — and it will make an even deeper imprint¹⁰ in the next sixmonths of campaigning.

我担心特朗普身上会发生同样的事情。11月，这位“共和党人”（如果他算是的话）很可能会输给希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。然而，特朗普的竞选已经改变了美国和全球政治，而且他会在今后六个月的选战中打下更深的烙印。

Themes and ideas that were on the fringeshave now entered the political mainstream⁸, and they will not disappear if andwhen Mr Trump loses.

曾经的边缘主题思想和理念如今已进入政治主流。就算特朗普输掉选举，它们也不会消失。

What are those ideas? I would highlightfive. First, a rejection of globalisation and free trade. This, of course, is atheme that Mr Trump shares with Bernie Sanders on the left of the Democraticparty. Its influence can already be seen in the way in which Mrs Clinton hasbacked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership¹¹, a trade deal that she oncechampioned.

那么，这些主题思想是什么呢？我会重点强调五点。首先是对全球化和自由贸易的抵制。当然，特朗普和民主党左翼的伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)都提出了这个竞选主题。它的影响，从希拉里不再支持《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)就可见一斑——她曾大力支持这份贸易协定。

The second theme is nationalism, epitomisedby Mr Trump’s slogan of “America First”. In Europe, nationalism implies arejection of the EU. But the global implications of American nationalism aremuch more serious since the US underpins¹² the whole international securitysystem and issues the world’s reserve currency, the dollar.

第二个主题则是民族主义，特朗普“美国优先”的口号就是个缩影。在欧洲，民族主义意味着对欧盟的抵制。然而，美国的民族主义对全球的影响要严重得多，因为美国支撑着整个国际安全体系，并发行着全球储备货币——美元。

A third idea is the embrace of the notionof a “clash of civilisations” between the west and Islam. Even as PresidentGeorge W Bush launched a “war on terror” in 2001, he rejected the idea that theUS is at war with Islam itself. Mr Trump, with his talk of temporarily banningall Muslims from entering the US, has essentially¹³ embraced the idea ofinevitable conflict between the west and the Islamic world.

第三个主题，是接受西方与伊斯兰世界之间存在“文明冲突”的观点。即使是在乔治?W?布什(George W. Bush)总统2001年发动“反恐战争”时，他也抵制住了美国在与伊斯兰世界交战的看法。而特朗普提出的暂时禁止所有穆斯林进入美国，实质上是接纳了西方与伊斯兰世界不可避免发生冲突的观点。

A fourth theme is a relentless¹⁴ assault onthe “elite”, including Washington, Wall Street and the universities. A populistdistrust of elites as been a perennial¹⁵ theme in US politics for decades, if notcenturies. But growing inequality, immigration and the financial crisis havedriven anti-elite rhetoric¹⁶ to new levels. As a New York billionaire, Mr Trumpis an unlikely tribune of the common man. But he has played the cardeffectively during the campaign.

第四个主题是对包括华盛顿、华尔街和美国各大学在内的“精英人士”的猛烈抨击。民粹主义对精英的不信任成为美国的长期政治主题就算没有几百年，也有几十年的历史。然而，社会不平等的日益加剧、外来移民以及金融危机，已经把反精英的言论推到了新高度。作为纽约的亿万富翁，特朗普不太可能是普通民众的守护者。然而他在选战期间却十分有效地打了这张牌。

A fifth and related trend is thedenunciation of the mainstream media as untrustworthy and an embrace ofalternative, conspiratorial¹⁷ narratives¹⁸ that are flourishing on the internet. MrTrump, for example, has promoted the baseless idea that President Barack Obamawas not born in the US. This embrace of conspiracy¹⁹ theories is pernicious fordemocracy, which requires some agreement on basic facts as the foundation fordebate.

第五个主题及与此有关的趋势，是对主流媒体不值得信任的谴责，以及对互联网上盛行的另类阴谋论叙事的接纳。比如，特朗普一直在宣传巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统并非出生在美国的毫无根据的观点。这种对阴谋论的接纳对民主极为有害，因为民主需要在一定程度上对基本事实的共识，作为辩论的基础。

Variants²⁰ of these five trends are alsoflourishing on the far right in Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungaryare in the hands of parties that preach a Trumpian mix of nationalism, fear ofIslam, distrust of the “liberal” media and anti-globalism. In France, Mr Le Pen’s daughter,Marine, is likely to make it to the final round of the presidential election in2017.

上述五种趋势的变体在欧洲极右翼人士中也十分盛行。执掌波兰政府和匈牙利政府的党派，正在鼓吹混合了民族主义、对伊斯兰的恐惧、对“自由派”媒体的不信任和反全球化的特朗普式理念。在法国，勒庞的女儿马琳(Marine)可能会在2017年的总统选举中进入最后一轮。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

3 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

4 retrospect   

n.回顾，追溯；v.回顾，回想，追溯

参考例句：

• One's school life seems happier in retrospect than in reality.学校生活回忆起来显得比实际上要快乐。
• In retrospect,it's easy to see why we were wrong.回顾过去就很容易明白我们的错处了。

5 hatred   

n.憎恶，憎恨，仇恨

参考例句：

• He looked at me with hatred in his eyes.他以憎恨的眼光望着我。
• The old man was seized with burning hatred for the fascists.老人对法西斯主义者充满了仇恨。

6 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

7 rejection   

n.拒绝，被拒，抛弃，被弃

参考例句：

• He decided not to approach her for fear of rejection.他因怕遭拒绝决定不再去找她。
• The rejection plunged her into the dark depths of despair.遭到拒绝使她陷入了绝望的深渊。

8 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

9 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

10 imprint   

n.印痕，痕迹；深刻的印象；vt.压印，牢记

参考例句：

• That dictionary is published under the Longman imprint.那本词典以朗曼公司的名义出版。
• Her speech left its imprint on me.她的演讲给我留下了深刻印象。

11 partnership   

n.合作关系，伙伴关系

参考例句：

• The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
• Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。

12 underpins   

n.基础材料( underpin的名词复数 )；基础结构；（学说、理论等的）基础；（人的）腿v.用砖石结构等从下面支撑（墙等）( underpin的第三人称单数 )；加固（墙等）的基础；为（论据、主张等）打下基础；加强

参考例句：

• A powerful sense of mission underpins everything he does. 一种强烈的使命感支撑他所做的一切。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His presence at the crime underpins the case against him. 案子发生时他在场对他更不利。 来自辞典例句

13 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

14 relentless   

adj.残酷的，不留情的，无怜悯心的

参考例句：

• The traffic noise is relentless.交通车辆的噪音一刻也不停止。
• Their training has to be relentless.他们的训练必须是无情的。

15 perennial   

adj.终年的；长久的

参考例句：

• I wonder at her perennial youthfulness.我对她青春常驻感到惊讶。
• There's a perennial shortage of teachers with science qualifications.有理科教学资格的老师一直都很短缺。

16 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

17 conspiratorial   

adj.阴谋的，阴谋者的

参考例句：

• She handed the note to me with a conspiratorial air. 她鬼鬼祟祟地把字条交给了我。 来自辞典例句
• It was enough to win a gap-toothed, conspiratorial grin. 这赢得对方咧嘴一笑。 来自互联网

18 narratives   

记叙文( narrative的名词复数 )； 故事； 叙述； 叙述部分

参考例句：

• Marriage, which has been the bourne of so many narratives, is still a great beginning. 结婚一向是许多小说的终点，然而也是一个伟大的开始。
• This is one of the narratives that children are fond of. 这是孩子们喜欢的故事之一。

19 conspiracy   

n.阴谋，密谋，共谋

参考例句：

• The men were found guilty of conspiracy to murder.这些人被裁决犯有阴谋杀人罪。
• He claimed that it was all a conspiracy against him.他声称这一切都是一场针对他的阴谋。

20 variants   

n.变体( variant的名词复数 )；变种；变型；（词等的）变体

参考例句：

• Those variants will be preserved in the'struggle for existence". 这些变异将在“生存竞争”中被保留下来。 来自辞典例句
• Like organisms, viruses have variants, generally called strains. 与其他生物一样，病毒也有变种，一般称之为株系。 来自辞典例句