特朗普抓住了贸易失衡的关键

 　　Both US and European policymakers have misdiagnosed what ails¹ the global economy.

　　美国和欧洲的政策制定者都错判了全球经济的困境。

　　It is not a short-run, cyclical problem curable with textbook Keynesian stimuli² (and exotics like quantitative³ easing). Rather, it is a long-term structural⁴ disequilibrium caused by chronic⁵ trade imbalances — the result, in turn, of manipulated currencies, mercantilist practices and poorly negotiated trade deals.

　　它并非一个通过教科书般的凯恩斯式经济刺激（以及量化宽松等不寻常举措）就能解决的短期周期性问题，而是一个因长期贸易失衡导致的长期结构性失衡，而长期贸易失衡是汇率操纵、重商主义惯例和谈判糟糕的贸易协议的结果。

　　Enter, stage centre, Donald Trump⁶.

　　唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)站到了舞台中央。

　　Before the era of globalisation, which began in earnest in the 1980s, US managers improved efficiency by substituting capital for labour in domestic factories.

　　在全球化（真正开始是在上世纪80年代）时代开启之前，美国企业管理者通过在国内工厂用资本取代劳动力提高了效率。

　　As globalisation has taken hold, executives have offshored entire factories as a more effective means of maximising profits.

　　随着全球化的推进，作为一种更有效的利润最大化方式，企业高管们将整个工厂外包到海外。

　　This offshoring trend is mirrored in statistics that reveal a rapid narrowing of the US manufacturing sector⁷.

　　这种外包趋势在数据统计中得到了体现。数据显示，美国制造业快速收缩。

　　In the 1970s, manufacturing employed 20 per cent of the workforce⁸.

　　上世纪70年代，美国制造业聘用了全国20%的劳动者。

　　Today, that number has dropped to a mere⁹ 8 per cent — with more than 5m manufacturing jobs lost since 2000 alone.

　　如今，这一数字降至区区8%，仅自2000年以来制造业就损失了500万个以上的就业岗位。

　　To those who would blame this decline primarily on automation, one need only point to Germany and Japan, which retain almost 20 per cent and 17 per cent of their labour force in manufacturing, respectively.

　　对于那些将这种收缩主要归咎于自动化的人，我们只需让他们看看德国和日本，这两国分别将近20%和17%的劳动者留在了制造业

　　These countries are worldwide leaders in robotics.

　　，而这两个国家是机器人领域的全球领袖。

　　As the US manufacturing base has narrowed, the rate of productivity has fallen.

　　随着美国制造业基础的收缩，生产率一直下滑。

　　During the 1970s growth in US unit labour costs was 6.8 per cent a year but it dropped to 3.6 per cent in the 1980s, 1.6 per cent in the 1990s and to 1.2 per cent so far this century.

　　上世纪70年代，美国的单位劳动成本每年增长6.8%，80年代降至3.6%，90年代降至1.6%，本世纪至今为1.2%。

　　This productivity decline is likewise mirrored in the rise of outward foreign direct investment.

　　生产率下滑反映在了对外直接投资(FDI)增长上。

　　During the 1970s, total US FDI was a mere $109.2bn.

　　上世纪70年代，美国的对外直接投资只有1092亿美元。

　　With globalisation, FDI grew 59.2 per cent to $174.8bn in the 1980s, $1.1tn in the 1990s and $3tn in the first decade of this century.

　　上世纪80年代，在全球化的推动下，美国的对外直接投资增长59.2%，至1748亿美元，上世纪90年代和本世纪头10年分别达到1.1万亿美元和3万亿美元。

　　Today, FDI is sprinting¹⁰ ahead at a $4tn rate.

　　如今，对外直接投资正以4万亿美元的速度向前挺进。

　　Of course, not all outbound FDI has been due to offshoring.

　　当然，并非所有对外直接投资都是因为外包。

　　The decline in US manufacturing employment and the fall in US productivity — and associated slower US growth rates and stagnant¹¹ wages — have, however, been greatly accelerated and amplified¹² by a series of bad trade deals and chronic currency misalignments that prevent trade from coming back into balance.

　　一系列的糟糕贸易协议和长期汇率失调阻止贸易恢复平衡，加快并放大了美国制造业就业的减少以及美国生产率的下滑——还有相关的美国经济增速放缓和薪资停滞。

　　This is hardly the conventional wisdom — whence the continued tilting¹³ at Keynesian windmills in both the US and Europe.

　　这很难说是传统观点。欧美的传统观点都继续倾向凯恩斯式的刺激。

　　New studies have, however, cast increasing doubt on the standard gains from trade arguments that have both justified¹⁴ and propelled globalisation.

　　然而，新研究越来越让人质疑标准的贸易利得说法，这种说法既合理化又推动了全球化。

　　A joint¹⁵ study by Justin Pierce of the Federal Reserve and Yale School of Management’s Peter Schott attributes most of the 18 per cent decline in US manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2007 to President Bill Clinton’s decision to grant China permanent normal trade relations status as part of Beijing’s accession to theWorld Trade Organisation¹⁶ in 2001.

　　美联储(Fed)的贾斯汀?皮尔斯(Justin Pierce)和耶鲁大学管理学院(Yale School of Management)的彼得?斯科特(Peter Schott)联合开展的研究，将2001年至2007年美国制造业就业减少18%的多数原因归为美国前总统比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)的一项决定：作为中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的一部分，美国赋予了中国永久性正常贸易关系待遇。

　　Other studies have concluded the China trade shock to be more of a zero-sum game, with American workers and the US economy on the minus side.

　　其他一些研究总结称，中国贸易冲击更多的是一种零和游戏，美国劳动者和美国经济处于不利地位。

　　The broader lesson here is that while exports do indeed create jobs, it is net exports that ultimately matter.

　　更广泛的教训是尽管出口确实会创造就业，但最终重要的是净出口。

　　When countries like the US and continents like Europe run massive and chronic trade deficits¹⁷ and countries like China do not allow freely floating currency movements to balance trade, bad things will eventually happen in the forms of accelerated offshoring, slower growth, falling productivity and stagnant wages.

　　如果美国等国和欧洲等大陆长期处于大规模贸易赤字，而中国等国不允许汇率自由浮动以平衡贸易，那么糟糕的结果最终会以外包加快、增长放缓、生产率下滑以及薪资停滞的形式出现。

　　This is the economic and political landscape that the US now finds itself in, and it is no wonder that Mr Trump is so popular.

　　这是美国现在所处的经济和政治情况，特朗普如此受欢迎也就不足为奇了。

　　Like Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, the Republican nominee¹⁸ understands America’s economic woes¹⁹ can only be addressed through comprehensive structural reforms, particularly in the areas of trade and tax policy.

　　与上世纪80年代的罗纳德?里根(Ronald Reagan)一样，这位共和党总统提名人选明白，美国的经济困境只能通过全面结构性改革化解，尤其是在贸易和税收政策领域。

　　For example, America’s 35 per cent corporate²⁰ tax rate means businesses carry down only 65 per cent of pre-tax earnings²¹ to their post-tax net.

　　例如，美国35%的企业税税率意味着，企业只能将65%的税前利润计入税后利润。

　　Mr Trump’s proposed 15 per cent rate promises a 30 per cent higher earnings return than at present, and would thereby²² greatly improve the attractiveness of domestic investment.

　　特朗普提议的15%的企业税税率意味着企业利润将比目前提高30%，这将大大提高国内投资的吸引力。

　　Mr Trump’s broader mission is to reinvigorate the US economy and restore faith in the global free trade order by ridding it of cheating and structural misalignments.

　　特朗普的更广泛任务是通过消除欺诈和结构性失调，恢复美国经济的活力并重塑人们对全球自由贸易秩序的信任。

　　Europe may want to take a page out of his playbook.

　　欧洲可能会希望向他取经。

　　This is particularly true when it comes to China.

　　在涉及到中国的问题上尤其如此。

　　Here, Europe has lagged behind the US in imposing²³ countervailing tariffs²⁴ against dumping, and is now paying a very heavy price.

　　在征收反倾销关税方面，欧洲一直落后于美国，而且现在正付出非常沉重的代价。

1 ails   

v.生病( ail的第三人称单数 )；感到不舒服；处境困难；境况不佳

参考例句：

• He will not concede what anything ails his business. 他不允许任何事情来干扰他的工作。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Measles ails the little girl. 麻疹折磨着这个小女孩。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 stimuli   

n.刺激（物）

参考例句：

• It is necessary to curtail or alter normally coexisting stimuli.必需消除或改变正常时并存的刺激。
• My sweat glands also respond to emotional stimuli.我的汗腺对情绪刺激也能产生反应。

3 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

4 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

5 chronic   

adj.(疾病)长期未愈的，慢性的；极坏的

参考例句：

• Famine differs from chronic malnutrition.饥荒不同于慢性营养不良。
• Chronic poisoning may lead to death from inanition.慢性中毒也可能由虚弱导致死亡。

6 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

7 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

8 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

9 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

10 sprinting   

v.短距离疾跑( sprint的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Stride length and frequency are the most important elements of sprinting. 步长和步频是短跑最重要的因素。 来自互联网
• Xiaoming won the gold medal for sprinting in the school sports meeting. 小明在学校运动会上夺得了短跑金牌。 来自互联网

11 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

12 amplified   

放大，扩大( amplify的过去式和过去分词 )； 增强； 详述

参考例句：

• He amplified on his remarks with drawings and figures. 他用图表详细地解释了他的话。
• He amplified the whole course of the incident. 他详述了事件的全过程。

13 tilting   

倾斜，倾卸

参考例句：

• For some reason he thinks everyone is out to get him, but he's really just tilting at windmills. 不知为什么他觉得每个人都想害他，但其实他不过是在庸人自扰。
• So let us stop bickering within our ranks.Stop tilting at windmills. 所以，让我们结束内部间的争吵吧！再也不要去做同风车作战的蠢事了。

14 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。

15 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

16 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

17 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

18 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

19 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

20 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

21 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

22 thereby   

adv.因此，从而

参考例句：

• I have never been to that city,,ereby I don't know much about it.我从未去过那座城市，因此对它不怎么熟悉。
• He became a British citizen,thereby gaining the right to vote.他成了英国公民，因而得到了投票权。

23 imposing   

adj.使人难忘的，壮丽的，堂皇的，雄伟的

参考例句：

• The fortress is an imposing building.这座城堡是一座宏伟的建筑。
• He has lost his imposing appearance.他已失去堂堂仪表。

24 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。